Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Rechenzentrum
We present an uncertainty measure that is based on a business survey in which uncertainty is captured directly by a qualitative
question on subjective uncertainty regarding expectations. Uncertainty perceptions display persistence at the firm level and
changes are associated with past business assessments and expectations. While our uncertainty measure correlates with commonly
used alternatives, it is superior in forecasting and suggests a larger role of uncertainty shocks for aggregate fluctuations.
Its informational content is highest when considering smaller firms or firms with a low growth rate. Our results confirm the
feasibility of constructing uncertainty measures from business survey questions that elicit information on uncertainty of
This paper examines broad patterns of structural change for a large number of countries on a global scale and for a smaller
set of advanced industrialised countries over time. The findings show that structural change over the past decades followed
the three-sector hypothesis. The past decades were characterised by the rise of the service sector, driven especially by business
services and non-market service. At the same time as manufacturing sectors are declining in terms of shares, they remain the
sectors with the highest contributions to aggregate productivity growth. An analysis of determinants of structural change
confirms that country competencies related to institutional quality, knowledge generation and industrial application of the
new knowledge are an important driving force of structural changes towards services, but that they have a heterogeneous impact
on manufacturing subsectors. High technology manufacturing share seems not to be characterised by a tendency to decline with
the development of country competencies. Broad policy implications are discussed.
This paper examines the association between participation in global value chains and financial globalisation measured by international
net and capital flows. The results show that financial globalisation and the rise of global value chains are related but not
two sides of the same coin. In fact, we find that GVC participation is positively associated with equity capital flows but
negatively associated with debt capital flows. We also study the association of GVC participation and capital flows with aggregate
economic outcomes. The findings show that both GVC participation and equity flows affect the share of mortgage and business
credit. But we uncover also important differences in the impact of capital flows between advanced and emerging countries.
Regarding changes in the economic structure our results suggest a positive association of both GVC participation and equity
inflows on the manufacturing share, while debt inflows are primarily associated with a growth of the service sector in advanced
economies, but not in emerging and developing countries. The finding that there is no strong association between the globalisation
indicators and innovation suggests that the fragmentation of value chains leads to functional specialisation in tasks and
tends to weaken the link between innovation and production at country level. We find in addition that a higher GVC participation
is weakly associated with a higher growth of government revenue, as are debt flows but only in advances countries. This finding
suggests also that debt flows were redirected primarily into safe countries in advanced countries.
This paper examines structural change in global trade and its impact in the development of manufacturing shares across countries
over time. It focuses on the dynamics of variety creation and destruction in exports and links the observed outcomes to the
development of manufacturing shares across countries. The results show that while there is an inverse-U-shaped relationship
with income per capita levels across countries of manufacturing shares, a specialisation in product lines with a high likelihood
of displacing other exports and a high propensity to induce a clustering in the uptake of exports in related product lines
is positively associated with manufacturing shares. Controlling for income levels more complex export portfolios are weakly
associated with smaller manufacturing shares. These effects are mitigated when these parameters combine at the extreme ends
of their values range.
Unsere Studie entwickelt einen neuen Ansatz, um die lokalen Wachstumseffekte der EU-Regionalpolitik seit 2007 zu untersuchen.
Für eine ausgewählte Pilotregion im Grenzgebiet zwischen Deutschland, Polen und Tschechien kombinieren wir erstmals einen
Mikrodatensatz zum Erhalt von EU-Förderung auf Projektebene mit Fernerkundungsdaten verschiedener Satelliten. Dabei wird das
Wachstum der regionalen Wirtschaft über Änderungen in der Intensität der jährlichen Nachtlichtemissionen erfasst. Auf Gemeindeebene
lässt sich zeigen, dass der Erhalt höherer Förderbeträge mit höherem Wachstum einhergeht. Die Ergebnisse dieses Projekts verdeutlichen,
wie Fernerkundungsdaten effektiv genutzt werden können, um die kleinräumigen Auswirkungen regionaler Wirtschaftsförderung
auch im gesamteuropäischen Kontext zu quantifizieren.
Auftraggeber: European Commission-Framework Programme
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek – Istituto Nazionale di Statistica – Lunaria Associazione di Promozione Sociale e Impresa Sociale – United Nations University – Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology – Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques – Scuola superiore Sant'Anna – Statistik Österreich – University College London – Universität Bielefeld – Universität Ljubljana – Universität Tartu – Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung – Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Belgium)
This paper uses the supply tables underlying WIOT data to explore the provision of services by manufacturing. The service
shares differ substantially across countries and sectors, while they remain largely stable over time. Findings from a latent
class analysis reveal that servitization in-crease with labour productivity. The service intensities in the sectoral production
mix of broadly defined manufacturing sectors are lower in countries with higher manufacturing shares. This holds for both
catching-up and developed economies. Yet, servitization is largely unrelated to productivity and employment growth. We therefore
argue that the degree of servitization is contingent on and an attribute of the respective economic model in which a sector
This paper is the first to study the effects of hosting Olympic Games on regional economic output beyond population dynamics.
For identification, runners-up in the Olympic bidding process are used to construct the counterfactual for Olympic host regions.
In the short run, hosting Summer Olympics boosts regional GDP per capita by about 3 to 4 percentage points relative to the
national level in the year of the event and the year before. There is also evidence for positive long-run effects, but results
on the latter are not statistically robust. In contrast, Winter Olympics do not have a positive impact on host regions. If
anything, they lead to a temporal decline in regional GDP per capita in the years around the event.
Over the course of the 2014-2020 period, the European Union has invested more than 125 billion € into support to research
and innovation through two main channels: the excellence-based Horizon 2020 programme and its cohesion policy implemented
through the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) and in particular the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).
While projects funded by ESIF are selected in the context of place-based operational programmes and smart specialisation strategies
(S3), Horizon 2020 grants are assigned based on the quality of the project proposals and consortia without any geographical
criteria. A concentration of R&I funding from both funding schemes in the same technological or policy area could point to
the creation of a synergy between EU funding as suggested by the concept of smart specialisation and encouraged by the European
Commission. This report uses project data to analyse the regional distribution of Horizon 2020 and ESIF funding among key
enabling technologies and societal grand challenges and to map potential synergies between different EU funding policies.