Leading theories suggest that amongst continuing exporters, lower variable trade costs should boost exports of smaller firms
by the same or greater percentage rate than larger firms. However, investigating the impact of the deep EU-South Korea FTA
with French customs data, we find robust evidence to the contrary. Applying a triple-difference framework, we report that
the FTA increased sales in the top quartile of continuous exporters by 71.5 percent points more than in the bottom quartile.
More than 90 percent of that growth premium is driven by reductions in NTBs. These findings suggest an additional channel
driving the distributional effects of FTAs.
This paper advances a dynamic rationale for competitiveness policy that focuses on an economy's ability to evolve in order
to achieve high real incomes along with desired qualitative changes in the socio-economic system. It highlights that the ubiquitous
"rationalities of failure", either of markets, governments, or systems, are rooted in a peculiar habit of accepting hypothetical
perfect states as normative benchmarks. In contrast, competitiveness policy starts from the objectives that the system wants
to achieve. By combining the structuralist ontology of the micro, meso and macro levels of development with the basic system
functions of evolutionary change, a general typology is developed that differentiates, organizes, and integrates various economic
policies according to their respective contributions to the evolvability of the system. Among other advantages, the proposed
concept of competitiveness policy allows (i) to replace the negative "logic of failure" with the active pursuit of dynamic
development goals, (ii) to break the ideologically afflicted dichotomy between "vertical" and "horizontal" policies and (iii)
to better align the theoretical rationale with the actual perception of the societal purpose of public interventions by most
policy agents.
Julia Bachtrögler-Unger, Mathias Dolls, Carla Krolage, Paul Schüle, Hannes Taubenböck, Matthias Weigand
We present a novel approach to analyze the effects of EU cohesion policy on local economic activity. For all municipalities
in the border area of the Czech Republic, Germany, and Poland, we collect project-level data on EU funding in the period between
2007 and 2013. Using night light emission data as a proxy for economic development, we show that receiving a higher amount
of EU funding is associated with increased economic activity at the municipal level. Our paper demonstrates that remote sensing
data can provide an effective way to model local economic development also in Europe, where comprehensive cross-border data
are not available at such a spatially granular level.
Anhand der vergangenen Entwicklung wird gezeigt, dass sich im Lauf der Zeit die Schwerpunkte und Fragestellungen der Pensionspolitik
verändert haben. Im Hinblick auf die anhaltende Diskussion zur Sicherung der Finanzierung der Alterssicherung wird eine Adaptierung
der Finanzierungsstruktur der Alterssicherung im Sinne des Leistungsfähigkeitsprinzips an die Gegebenheiten des Produktions-
und Wirtschaftssystems des 21. Jahrhunderts und der Vermögensökonomie zur Diskussion gestellt.
Timo Wollmershäuser, Stefan Ederer, Friederike Fourné, Max Lay, Robert Lehmann, Sebastian Link, Sascha Möhrle, Ann-Christin Rathje, Radek Šauer, Moritz Schasching, Lara Zarges, Gerome Wolf
Auftraggeber: ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.
Die Stimmung in der deutschen Wirtschaft hat sich in den vergangenen Monaten spürbar eingetrübt. Nahezu kein Wirtschaftsbereich
blieb davon verschont. Anders als noch im Sommer erwartet, dürfte daher die Erholung in der zweiten Jahreshälfte ausbleiben
und sich die konjunkturelle Abkühlung fortsetzen. Im laufenden Quartal dürfte die Wirtschaftsleistung um 0,2% im Vergleich
zum Vorquartal sinken. Erst gegen Jahresende ist wieder mit einem leichten Anstieg um 0,3% zu rechnen, bevor dann im kommenden
Jahr gesamtwirtschaftlich eine Erholung einsetzt. Insgesamt wird das preisbereinigte Bruttoinlandsprodukt in diesem Jahr um
0,4% im Vergleich zum Vorjahr zurückgehen. In den kommenden beiden Jahren wird die Wirtschaftsleistung dann um 1,4% und 1,2%
zulegen. Die konjunkturelle Schwäche wird den Beschäftigungsaufbau weitgehend zum Erliegen bringen und die Arbeitslosigkeit
zunächst weiter steigen lassen. Die Arbeitslosenquote wird in diesem und im kommenden Jahr mit durchschnittlich 5,6% um 0,3
Prozentpunkte höher liegen als noch im Jahr 2022. Erst im Jahr 2025 dürfte die Quote wieder auf 5,3% zurückgehen. Die Inflationsrate
wird weiter zurückgehen von durchschnittlich 6,0% in diesem Jahr auf 2,6% im kommenden und 1,9% im übernächsten Jahr.
In view of the challenges posed by climate change and the increasingly ambitious climate targets around the world, the search
for effective climate policy instruments is gaining momentum. Carbon pricing, for example, in the form of a carbon tax, and
its effects are therefore attracting increasing attention in academic as well as policy discussions. We review the empirical
effects of carbon taxes with regard to several impact dimensions commonly studied in the literature: environmental effectiveness,
macroeconomic effects, impacts on competitiveness and innovation, distributional implications, and public acceptance. An increasing
body of empirical studies shows that carbon taxes can effectively reduce carbon emissions or at least dampen their growth
while not negatively affecting economic growth, employment, and competitiveness. The existing empirical evidence suggests
that the distributional impact of carbon taxes depends on the type of energy use and the indicators to capture distributional
effects, as well as on household characteristics. Lump-sum transfers are shown to be better suited to mitigate regressive
effects for lower incomes, while higher incomes benefit more from a reduction of labour taxes. Public acceptance of carbon
taxes can be increased by providing public information, avoiding negative distributional effects, and channelling part of
the revenues into "environmental projects".
in: Alberto Comelli, Janet E. Milne, Mikael Skou Anderson, Hope Ashiabor, Taxation and the Green Growth Challenge
Buchbeiträge, Edward Elgar Publishing, August 2023, S.99-112
Discussions about the reform of subsidies with negative climate impacts have been going on for decades in policy and research.
Such subsidies counteract climate protection efforts, contradict the polluter-pays principle, and reinforce market distortions
and the carbon lock-in. Based on a literature review, the paper summarises the results of a comprehensive bottom-up analysis
of direct subsidies and fiscal measures (indirect subsidies) that are granted on the federal level in Austria. The analysis
considers energy generation and use, transport, and agriculture and assesses the subsidies' legal foundations and original
motivations, the subsidy volumes and identifies the beneficiary groups. The quantification of the subsidies results in a range
of 4.1 to 5.7 billion € p.a. In addition, relevant regulatory provisions that have a subsidy character are examined. Considering
the environmental effectiveness, economic criteria (like distributional impacts) and potential legal constraints reform suggestions
are developed for the support measures.
This paper studies the direct and indirect trade volume and trade cost effects of uncertainty on international trade and economic
welfare using a structural gravity framework for a panel of 97 developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2018. We find
that the sign and magnitude of the effect depend on whether uncertainty originates from the importing or exporting country.
Moreover, applying a cross-sectional gravity model, we show that an uncertainty shock directly reduces cross-border trade
flows. The paper illustrates the suitability of the proposed modelling approach by means of two counterfactual scenario analyses
in which we calculate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of uncertainty induced by the unexpected outcome of
the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.