Themenplattform "Grüne Transformation und Energiesysteme"

Q2-PATHWAYS improves the understanding of deep-structural transformational change by innovatively enriching quantitative with qualitative analyses. The policy objective is to elaborate transformation pathways that are equitable, responsible, resilient, environmentally friendly and socially inclusive by transdisciplinary visioning and strategising with practitioners from policymaking, business and civil society. This aims at broadening the objectives of and the visions for climate policies by advancing from striving for a net-zero economy to aiming at climate-friendly living defined as a good life for all within planetary boundaries and overcoming climate-only policies that remain in a policy silo and putting climate politics at centre stage in a broader societal transformation towards sustainability. The scientific objective is to elaborate a holistic approach to societal transformations by integrating quantitative and qualitative climate research. This endeavour combines inter- and transdisciplinary research: first, Q2-PATHWAYS calibrates existing narratives and transformation pathways based on contemporary research and its transdisciplinary visioning and strategising approach. Second, it calibrates an integrated model of the electricity sector and the macroeconomy with the help of high-level experts mainly from the Second Austrian Assessment Report. Third, three transformation pathways will be modelled with the aim of analysing the effects of integrating diverse pragmatic and radical measures, thereby contributing to climate policies that have a higher potential to be not only effective, but also feasible.

The goal of the project is therefore to allocate the emissions levels that will apply in the future to emission pathways for the building sector and to enable a quantitative assessment of the necessary transition measures.

A cornerstone of green transition policies is the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The policy instrument increases the costs of CO2, thereby exerting a push effect to lower emissions. We empirically study key aspects of the directed technological change literature against the backdrop of the EU ETS and hard-to-abate (HTA) manufacturing industries. These are characterised by scale intensive, continuous production processes and considerable sunk costs related to capital investments. The technologies used are determined by established trajectories that determine the knowledge base and production networks of these companies. This causes substantial path dependence and lock-in situations. The research draws on a multitude of datasets, such as EU ETS data at the plant level, firm performance and patenting information, foreign direct investments, and recipient level information of EU regional funds. The research is highly policy relevant, and addresses questions about the regional distribution of HTA industries in the EU, the breaking-up of technological path dependence, stick (EU ETS) and carrot (co-funding) mechanisms, carbon leakage, and firm performance.

The proposed project "FutuRes-PV" aims for deriving policy recommendations how to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of PV (photovoltaic) support in Austria, allowing for a socially inclusive uptake of PV systems at household level. It therefore investigates the impact of increasing household PV electricity generation in Austria until 2040, analysrescing different policy scenarios regarding their impact on the development of prosumer activities related to PV systems ("prosumer scenarios").

The project addresses the trade-environment nexus from 3 different angles: the impact of environmental commitments in modern preferential trade agreements on overall trade, on the composition of trade flows as well as on welfare; their impact on CO2 emission levels embodied in traded goods, and the trade-related consequences from internalising environmental costs of international transport. It adds to a still scant empirical literature on these issues and presents new empirical findings based on new methodological approaches. The analysis accounts for the heterogeneity of environmental commitments in preferential trade agreements by introducing a new categorisation of environmental provisions that explicitly focuses on the legal enforceability of such measures. Our work on transport externalities, for the first time, links work on the quantification of external costs of transport to international trade and allows to quantify the real income effects from internalising the costs of CO2 emissions in international trade activities. The methodology combines structural gravity estimation of trade elasticities with a general equilibrium trade model.

Das Projekt soll dazu beitragen, die Nicht-CO2-Treibhausgasemissionen auf Betriebsebene zu ermitteln und Emissionsminderungspotenziale in der Landwirtschaft zu identifizieren. Die Ziele des Projekts sind die Entwicklung eines Protokolls zur Erstellung eines digitalen Monitoringsystems (DMS) von Nicht-CO2-Treibhausgasemissionen für landwirtschaftliche Betriebe; die Entwicklung und der Test eines Prototyp DMS; die Identifikation kosteneffektiver Klimaschutzmaßnahmen für landwirtschaftliche Betriebe und die Entwicklung eines Kommunikationskonzepts für ein digitales Dashboard zur Darstellung und Evaluierung von Kennzahlen zu Nicht-CO2-Treibhausgasemissionen für landwirtschaftliche Betriebe.

Climate change is one of today's grand challenges. The EU has committed itself to ambitious emission reduction targets: for 2020 and 2030, the EU aims at reducing its greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 by 20 percent and 40 percent, respectively, for 2050 an emission reduction by at least 80 percent is strived for. For large emitters in industry and energy generation the EU has established the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) in 2005 defining an EU-wide reduction target. Emissions from other sources, most notably from the household and transport sectors, are instead regulated at EU member countries level and should be reduced by 30 percent by 2030, with differentiated reduction targets for the individual EU member countries. To achieve the emission reduction targets in the Non-ETS sectors the issue of carbon pricing has recently gained in momentum in the political discussion at EU as well as at EU member countries level. The project SoMBI focuses on two research questions: What are the effects of an EU-wide carbon price for the Non-ETS sectors that allows achieving the 30 percent reduction target in different EU member countries? What are the effects of different revenue recycling options in the EU member countries? To answer these questions, we perform a model-based analysis with the new ADAGIO-DYNK model. The CO₂ price necessary to achieve the 30 percent EU-wide reduction target for the Non-ETS sectors is estimated. Also, detailed results for two case study countries are discussed. The countries (Austria and Poland) differ considerably in terms of the structure of their energy systems and economies. First, we focus on the macroeconomic, emission and distributional impacts of the tax. Then, the effects of different revenue recycling options are assessed and policy recommendations for the introduction of a carbon tax are developed.

Die Lebensmittelwertschöpfungskette ist das Rückgrat der Gesellschaft, aber weit davon entfernt, mit den Pariser Klimazielen oder dem Green Deal der Europäischen Kommission übereinzustimmen. Etwa ein Drittel der Treibhausgasemissionen gehen weltweit auf sie zurück. Etwa die Hälfte davon ist auf die Fleischproduktion zurückzuführen, die etwa 80% der landwirtschaftlichen Nutzfläche für die Futtermittelproduktion beansprucht. Der hohe Flächenverbrauch geht mit dem Verlust der biologischen Vielfalt und der Zerstörung natürlicher Lebensräume einher. Der nicht nachhaltige Fußabdruck der Fleischproduktion kann entweder durch politische Entscheidungsträger:innen, die die Landwirtschaft mit der Klimapolitik in Einklang bringen, oder durch Verbraucher:innen, die aus Gründen des Klimas, der Gesundheit oder des Tierschutzes vor Fleischprodukten zurückschrecken, oder durch Innovatoren oder etablierte Unternehmen, die neue Technologien einsetzen, um Fleischprodukte zu ersetzen, indem sie das gleiche sinnliche Erlebnis zu niedrigeren Kosten und in besserer Qualität anbieten, durchbrochen werden. Dieses Projekt untersucht die potenziell störenden Auswirkungen von Regulierungsbehörden, etablierten Unternehmen, Verbraucher:innen oder Start-ups (RISC) und erstellt Diffusionskurven für Fleischalternativen auf der Grundlage eingehender Analysen dieser potenziellen Störfaktoren. Die Diffusionsszenarien werden verwendet, um die Auswirkungen der wahrscheinlichsten Szenarien auf die Lebensmittelwertschöpfungskette in Bezug auf Produktion, Wertschöpfung, Beschäftigung und Treibhausgasemissionen mit einem regionalen Schwerpunkt auf Österreich zu bewerten.

The Austrian government strives for achieving greenhouse gas neutrality in the transport and the buildings sector by 2040. Achieving a complete decarbonisation within such a short time period will be challenging for both sectors: in the transport sector the trend of rising emissions must be reversed; in the building sector the building stock must be thermally improved and heating systems must completely shift towards renewable energy sources. The introduction of policy instruments to decarbonise the housing and mobility sectors will entail different effects for different household groups depending on several (socio-economic) aspects. The (presumed) regressivity of policy instruments (most notably fiscal measures) in these areas very often impedes an evidence-based discussion on the political level and is used as an argument against the implementation of respective measures. By linking a macroeconomic model with a vehicle choice model, a transport demand model and a building stock model, in TransFair-AT we will analyse policy scenarios achieving a full decarbonisation of housing and mobility in Austria by 2040. We will assess the emission impacts as well as the macroeconomic and distributional effects of policy sets on different household types and develop measures to compensate vulnerable groups ensuring that the disposable income of disadvantaged household groups is not reduced.

ReConstruct ist eine vom WIFO und CEPS getragene Plattform mit dem Ziel gemeinsam mit Akteur:innen aus Industrie, Politik, Forschung und Zivilgesellschaft über die Zukunft des Bauens im Hinblick auf Klimaneutralität zu reflektieren. Dazu erfolgt ein Austausch mit ähnlichen internationalen Aktivitäten, beispielsweise dem Projekt "Mistra Carbon Exit" in Schweden. Die Diskussionen konzentrieren sich unter anderem auf Innovationen im Bereich der Baustoffe, Innovationen bei Bauten, Kohlenstoffrecycling und sektorübergreifende Symbiosen. Als Gesamtperspektive wird ein integrierter Ansatz für die Wertschöpfungskette gewählt, um den Wert von Kohlenstoff(-reduzierungen) zu ermitteln und die "grüne Prämie" zu bestimmen.