Themenplattform "Ageing"

The project develops a dynamic microsimulation model for the USA to project age-specific labour force participation while accounting for population changes in education and health. The model produces projections that account for changes in cohorts' educational attainments and the dynamic effects of education on health and employment. A focus is on the projection of the labour market participation of persons with health limitations in various policy settings. The analysis is embedded in an internationally comparative framework. Our project adapts a multi-country comparative microsimulation model, which is currently being developed for five European countries, for the USA context. The creation of this model, combined with the analysis of participation behaviour of different socio-demographic groups and of the impact of different policies for the inclusion of persons with health impairments, allows to project labour force participation in the USA and to construct comparative what-if scenarios.

The establishment of the Rural Development Programme has broadened the range of instruments with which the Common Agricultural Policy aims to achieve objectives in rural areas. Measures have been established in this programme to support farms in developing business areas that go beyond the production of agricultural goods. These include the individual and joint marketing of products, the processing of agricultural goods into food and the establishment of services. This also includes the provision of social services. These are developed and marketed in Austria under the name "Green Care". The project investigates which regional economic effects can be expected from projects in this context.

The task of the project is to show whether, to what extent and for which groups the integration into the labour market has changed in recent decades. These changes are illustrated by labour market careers of 40-year-olds (and, in addition, of 30-year-olds). Labour market careers of three (or four) birth cohort groups are compared at intervals of 10 years each, for which substantial parts of the labour market careers are available in social security records starting from the potential entry into the labour market at the age of 15.

The present project is a further development of the project "Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing and Directed Technological Change" and aims to investigate another key variable for the assessment of the economic effects of ageing in more detail, namely the future development of labour force participation against the backdrop of changes in education and health. On the one hand, results of previous employment rate projections will be compared with results of alternative forecasting methods, which will allow a more differentiated assessment of the results of the previous project. On the other hand, the policy scope for the design of future labour market participation, especially of those aged over 50, is to be shown in a comparative perspective.

The gradual increase in the retirement age for women from 2024 to 2033 to 65 years should be associated with a longer period of employment for women. The recent past of transition is analysed along economic sectors. The aim here is to identify those sectors where there is already a gap between exit from the labour market and pensions entry. In these sectors, the upcoming raising of the age limit could pose a greater challenge.

IHS and WIFO have developed the long-term forecast and simulation model A-LMM (Austria Long-Run Macro Model). This study uses a new growth model based on an extended production function that takes into account the interaction of demographic factors with the development of technical progress. Thus growth rate of total factor productivity (TFP) reacts to changes in the expected age structure of the population. The model forecast will include macroeconomic variables, the development of the labour force, and other variables relevant for the forecast of the Old-Age Security Commission.

The WELTRANSIM project aims to explain the distributional effects induced by the ageing process and how welfare models contribute to mitigating such effects and securing wellbeing across the life cycle (from childhood to old age). Undoubtedly, population ageing changes the distribution of income, public resources and time use. In this respect, different welfare models induce different costs for actors and influence life course risks differently. We will contribute to investigating this issue by obtaining new data on intergenerational transfers, and by deriving innovative modelling tools. We will also employ macroeconometric techniques to test the interaction of economic, demographic and policy variables. In particular we will combine the National Time Transfer Accounts (NTA-NTTA) methodology with microsimulation analysis (both a static simulation tool – EUROMOD – and dynamic microsimulation) in order to investigate the extent to which the welfare state transfers, together with the ageing process, shift resources to the elderly. The proposal takes a comparative perspective based on the typologies of welfare models (Esping-Andersen, 1990). They serve as ideal-types or categories for comparing empirical variations (taxonomies) and testing empirical hypotheses. In this respect, the participating countries will act as typical cases of welfare state regimes – liberal, corporatist, social democratic – plus the subsequently added "familial or mediterranean" (Esping-Andersen, 1999).

The annual pension adjustment in Austria is based on the consumer price index. In other countries, other or several indicators are included in the calculation of the annual pension adjustment. This paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different adjustment systems and develops alternative adjustment indicators. In a further part, the burden of taxes and duties on pension households is analysed.

The project TRAPEZ follows the objective to improve the independent security of women in old age and to sustainably reduce the above-average Austrian gender gap in pensions.

With some 90 percent of the average retirement income received from a public pension entitlement, the Austrian system of old-age provision is very concentrated on the first pillar. Occupational pensions are primarily offered through pension funds and insurance companies. Direct commitments are an alternative vehicle, but their usage stagnates. The opportunity to offer defined contribution plans through pension funds and insurance contracts has certainly boosted the spread of occupational pensions in Austria. While occupational pensions have become more popular over time, low interest rates and high liquidity preference dampened demand for individual life insurance contracts. This study will collect data on the performance of pension funds and life insurance contracts in real terms.