WIFO Reports on Austria

Die WIFO Reports on Austria sind englischsprachige Kurzanalysen zu ökonomischen Entwicklungen in Österreich. Es werden regelmäßig Beiträge zu den Themen Konjunktur, Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, Makroökonomie, Arbeitsmarkt, Digitalisierung, Cash-Flow und Lohnstückkosten veröffentlicht, die die wesentlichen Entwicklungen in diesen Bereichen in Österreich zusammenfassen.

Die Artikel der Vorgänger "WIFO Bulletin" und "Austrian Economic Quarterly" finden Sie hier: WIFO Bulletin, Austrian Economic Quarterly  

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Strong Private Consumption Spurs Economic Growth. Medium-term Forecast of the Austrian Economy 2022 to 2026 Including the Tax Reform 2022 2024
WIFO Reports on Austria, 2021, (13), 26 Seiten
Online seit: 02.12.2021 0:00
The Austrian economy is set to recover significantly after the COVID-19 recession. This development will be driven by a strong international economic expansion (2022) and fiscal policy measures such as the investment premium and the tax reform. Hence, domestic demand becomes more pronounced over the forecast horizon. In 2022, GDP is expected to rise by 5.0 percent. Influenced by the presumed cool-down in the international economy, domestic growth is set to ease to 1.8 percent by 2026 (Ø 2022-2026 +2.6 percent p.a.). In comparison to the euro area, annual GDP growth in Austria is on average 0.2 percentage points higher. Trend output will grow by an average of 1.5 percent p.a. over the forecast period (WIFO method). Due to "forced savings" formed in 2020-21 as a result of COVID 19 restrictions and the relief provided to private households by the tax reform, private consumption will grow at an above-average rate of 3.1 percent p.a. (volume terms; 2022 +6.4 percent). In 2022, investment still benefits from frontloading effects triggered by the investment premium but loses momentum in 2023. From 2024, the investment allowance and the reductions in the corporate tax rate will stimulate investment. Foreign trade evolves in a particularly dynamic manner in 2022, which is due to the postponed rebound effect in international travel. The rapid economic expansion results in a strong decline in unemployment: in 2022, the unemployment rate (7.3 percent) will fall below the pre-crisis level. By the end of the forecast period, the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 6.1 percent. Strong international demand, supply shortages, the return of VAT rates to pre-crisis levels in some sectors and CO2 pricing, will push inflation to 3.1 percent in 2022 (Ø 2023-2026 +2.1 percent p.a.). The budget deficit declines from 6.3 percent in 2021 to 2.4 percent in 2022 (2026 +0.4 percent). The tax reform increases the budget deficit ratio on average by 0.6 percentage points p.a.
JEL-Codes:E32, E37, E66, D31
Keywords:Medium-term forecast, general government, Austria, COVID-19, distribution, tax reform
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und europäische Wirtschaftspolitik – Arbeitsmarkt, Einkommen und soziale Sicherheit
Sprache:Englisch

Ihre Ansprechpersonen

 

apl. Prof. Dr. Hans Pitlik

Funktion: Ökonom (Senior Economist), Chefredaktion WIFO-Monatsberichte und WIFO Reports on Austria

Tamara Fellinger

Tätigkeitsbereiche: Redaktion, Website, Publikationen, Abonnentenbetreuung

Tatjana Weber

Tätigkeitsbereiche: Redaktion, Website, Publikationen, Abonnentenbetreuung