On the Determinants of Global Bilateral Migration Flows. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 5
WWWforEurope: Welfare, Wealth and Work for Europe, Juni 2013, 21 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien – Österreichische Forschungsförderungsgesellschaft mbH – Österreichische Austauschdienst-GesmbH – Europäische Kommission, Rahmenprogramm
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
We present a method aimed at estimating global bilateral migration flows and assessing their determinants. We employ that
fact that available net migration figures for a country are (nonlinear) aggregates of migration flows from and to all other
countries of the world in order to construct a statistical model that links the determinants of (unobserved) migration flows
to total net migration. Using simple specifications based on the gravity model for international migration, we find that migration
flows can be explained by standard gravity model variables such as GDP differences, distance or bilateral population. The
usefulness of such models is exemplified by combining estimated specifications with population and GDP projections in order
to assess quantitatively the expected changes in migration flows to Europe in the coming decades.
Forschungsbereich:Arbeitsmarktökonomie, Einkommen und soziale Sicherheit – Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen