The Potential for Trade between Austria and Five CEE Countries. Results of a Panel Based Econometric Gravity Model

In recent years, Austria's exports into several CEECs increased at double-digit rates. The increase in the importance of Austria's foreign trade with the CEECs is closely associated with the institutional, political and economic transformation process taking place in those countries. If this process can be properly fostered within the framework of the European integration, we can expect the average degree of openness of the CEECs to converge to the level prevailing in the current members of the European Union. If such a convergence process were to take place, Austria's current export growth rates would be maintained in the medium run. The economic consequences of these countries' orientation toward the European Union are estimated in a gravity model and the results presented in this issue.