Cyclical Recovery in Danger of Stalling. Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005

Real GDP is projected to advance at a modest 1.5 percent in the current year. In the last few months, uncertainty has mounted about the further trend notably in manufacturing. The outlook for GDP growth of 2¼ percent in 2005 is particularly vague given the recent mixed signals from leading indicators. Employment growth remains insufficient against a strong increase in labour supply, with unemployment rising to a total of nearly 250,000.