Modelling Technology Wedges for Low Energy and Low Carbon Strategies. TranSust.Scan Working Paper

This paper is motivated by two questions: To what extent are energy systems different in various countries? What are the potentials for restructuring energy systems towards higher energy productivity and a lower carbon content? We conduct this analysis for 18 European countries and in addition for Japan and the USA. We attempt to distinguish between energy services as the only relevant indicator for welfare related conclusions and the resulting energy flows both for final (end use) energy and gross (untransformed) energy. We employ a model based analysis that depicts the transformation and application technologies that finally generate energy services. We apply the concept of technology wedges, i.e., we show the impact over time of particular technologies applied with a certain intensity. The scenarios developed by this methodological approach are driven by envisaged economic activity, measured by forecasts for real gross domestic product (GDP), by the parameters that describe certain structural changes and by behavioural assumptions of companies and consumers.