Strong Cyclical Upturn Mitigating the Severe Budgetary Problems. Economic Outlook for 2000 and 2001

Cyclical activity has gained considerable momentum since the beginning of the year. The forecast for GDP growth is therefore revised upward, to 3.5 percent in 2000 and 3.2 percent in 2001. Exports are benefiting from lively demand and output in Europe, providing strong incentives also for investment. Industrial enterprises intend to increase their capital spending at a double-digit rate this year. Private consumption is boosted by gains in disposable income resulting from tax cuts and higher family benefits. The stronger economic growth mitigates to some extent the severe budgetary problems, and also contributes to a marked decline in unemployment.