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WIFO publications: Fritz Breuss (295 hits)

WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (638), 26 pages
Online since: 14.10.2021 0:00
Many studies with different methods (CGE models, DSGE models, structural gravity equations) have recently evaluated EU's Single Market. The problem with all these studies is that they use complex models with data sets which are not replicable. The aim of this paper is to develop a simple EU model which uses readily accessible data, and which is replicable in EViews. First the 10 equations macro model is used to evaluate Austria's EU membership since 1995. Then the same prototype model is applied to make a comparison of the integration effects of a selected number of EU Member States. Our simple EU model covers the essential economic effects of EU integration of EU's Single Market, the introduction of the Euro, and the following EU enlargements: increase in intra-EU trade, price reduction because of more competition, the impact of the net budget position vis à vis the EU budget, and lastly that on growth.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (617), 51 pages
Online since: 03.11.2020 0:00
This analysis attempts to offer a counter strategy to the idea of anti-globalization and de-growth that had flared up again since the COVID-19 crisis. All international forecasts expect for the year 2020 the deepest recession since the Great Depression. Countries which can afford it, run a super-Keynesian fiscal policy to fight the crisis, accompanied by an extremely expansionary monetary policy in the USA (Fed) and in the euro area (ECB). As a third policy instrument besides fiscal and monetary policy, an aggressive pro-globalization trade policy could relieve and strengthen the crisis macro policy. To demonstrate which options are available we analyze nine mega free trade agreements, some of them are already in effect, others will be enacted soon. Overall, not the big players in world trade, the EU and the USA win by a simultaneous implementation of the nine FTAs. Japan would be the winner because it participates in four combinations (overlaps) of FTAs: EU–Japan, USA–Japan, CPTPP and RCEP. The USA hardly gain from further globalization. Similarly, the EU 27 cannot profit much from further globalization.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (603), 23 pages
Online since: 25.06.2020 0:00
Austria's EU accession 25 years ago, alongside Finland and Sweden, was preceded by an extended period of convergence toward the EU: via the free trade agreement concluded with the EC in 1973, and the participation in the European Economic Area (EEA) in 1994. Although the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 seems to overshadow the overall positive balance of 25 years of EU membership, on average the real GDP growth dividend amounted to 0.8 percentage points per year since 1995. To check the robustness of this result, obtained with an integration macro model, a DSGE model for Austria is used here. Usually other methods are applied to estimate integration effects: trade gravity models, CGE models, macro models. Following in't Veld's (2019) approach with a DSGE model for the EU, we adapt an earlier version of the two-country DSGE model for Austria and the Euro area (Breuss and Rabitsch, 2009) to evaluate the benefits of Austria's EU membership. It turns out that grosso modo the macro results can be confirmed with the DSGE model.
Monographs, August 2019, 36 pages
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 12.08.2019 0:00
 
Trump's trade wars hit a new dimension expanding from mini to global trade wars. They target sectors (e.g., aluminium and steel) for the protection of "national security" (according to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962) and countries (e.g., China) for unfair trade practices (according to Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974). Both legal instruments give the US President the power to impose sanctions and protective measures. Since Trump came in office, he has cancelled most multilateral agreements or projects the USA were previously involved (TTIP, TPP, NAFTA, Paris Climate Agreement, JCPoA). Whereas the US trade conflict with China escalated dramatically and could ultimately – beginning with 1 September 2019 as President Trump has threatened – affect all bilateral trade flows, the tensions with the EU are currently limited to aluminium and steel. However, a trade war with respect to cars could follow if no agreement on an US-EU FTA-light is reached, besides the agreement on increasing the share of duty-free imports of hormone-free beef from the USA, signed on 2 August 2019. We analyse the trade wars already underway (aluminium and steel; USA–China) and possible new conflicts (cars) and agreements (FTA-light) with two methods: 1. a static CGE model and 2. a global dynamic economic macro model. The comprehensive US trade war with China results in the biggest impact for the involved countries, followed by a possible car conflict and an FTA-light agreement.
WIFO Lectures, 2019, (119), 27 pages
Lecture given at the Conference "International Economic Integration: Firms, Workers, and Policies", in honour of Wilhelm Kohler's 65th birthday, Eberhard Karls University Tübingen
Online since: 24.07.2019 0:00
In this laudation of Wilhelm Kohler's 65th birthday I firstly will do a retrospective on the fight for Europe by Willi and me at the same time with different methods. We both did research around Austria's accession to the EU. We made several ex-ante studies about the possible economic impact of EU membership. The expected effects on GDP and trade were positive. This was then verified in ex-post studies. At that time the EU only was in the stage of the Single Market. Later it continued its process of deepening (EMU with the introduction of the Euro) and enlarging. Lastly the EU increased to 28 members. These integration steps gave enough impetus for Willi and me to do respective research. Research has also been done on the reform of the SGP and the several tries to reform the EMU after the Euro crisis. The Brexit is a new challenge not only politically, but economically. After discussing the present multiplicity of problems of the EU (Brexit, Euro crisis, migration problem) and a reflexion of the already existing reform proposals I try to develop a vision for a new (institutional) future for Europe: a dissolution of the present EU and a new foundation as the United States of Europe.
WIFO Working Papers, 2018, (572), 33 pages
Online since: 15.11.2018 0:00
The EU Single Market and the Maastricht Treaty are now aged 25. In this short history many events marked the way: the creation of EMU in 1999, the introduction of the euro in 2002, and the great EU enlargement starting in 2004. And lastly – for the first time – with the Brexit a reverse of the process of European integration takes place. The recession of 2009 and the Euro crisis in 2010 led to a setback in the economic development in the EU. A quarter of a century invites to look back about the achievements. How much trade and economic growth could be created by the Single Market plus euro plus EU enlargement? These questions are treated here with the help of a consistent integration model. Embedded into an endogenous growth model approach growth and trade effects for EU and EFTA countries are estimated. It turns out that (taking also into account GATT liberalisation) the European integration added to per-capita GDP 0.5 percentage point to EU 28 countries but only 0.2 percentage point to EFTA countries. Trade openness increased by 0.9 percentage point of GDP in EU 28 and by 0.3 percentage point in EFTA countries.
100 Jahre österreichische Wirtschaft (100 Years of Austrian Economy)
WIFO Working Papers, 2018, (570), 55 pages
Online since: 23.10.2018 0:00
Aus ökonomischer Sicht werden hier 100 Jahre Österreich beleuchtet und Schlussfolgerungen für die Zukunft gezogen. Die Republik Österreich besteht nicht durchgehend seit 100 Jahren; sie ging zwischen 1938 und 1945 unter. Im Gegensatz zur Sicht eines Historikers, der chronologisch und sehr detailliert die Ereignisse von 100 Jahren Österreich in der Ersten und Zweiten Republik beschreibt, möchte ich als Ökonom nur gewisse Muster herausarbeiten. Zum einen werde ich die Charakteristika der Wirtschaftsentwicklung nach den beiden Weltkriegen (Inflation, Arbeitslosigkeit, Staatshaushalt, Geldpolitik und die Auswirkungen auf das Wirtschaftswachstum) aufzeigen. Zum anderen werden die Auswirkungen der verschiedenen Regimewechsel auf die wirtschaftliche Souveränität und damit auf die Wirtschaftsentwicklung des Staates Österreich behandelt. In der Ersten Republik und am Beginn der Zweiten Republik gab es eher eine zwangsweise Abgabe an Souveränität (Völkerbunddiktat, Anschluss, Besatzung). Dann folgte mit dem Staatsvertrag und der Neutralität die volle Souveränität. Später kam es im Zuge der stufenweisen Teilnahme an der europäischen Integration (EFTA, EWR, EU, WWU) zu einer freiwilligen Abgabe an Souveränität in der Hoffnung, als Gegenleistung einen barrierefreien Zugang zu einem größeren Markt zu erhalten. Zum Abschluss werden die Vorzüge der EU-Mitgliedschaft beleuchtet und abschließend die Frage diskutiert, ob Österreich besser mit oder ohne EU in die Zukunft schreiten sollte.
WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (541), 39 pages
Online since: 01.09.2017 0:00
Ten years ago, the global financial crisis started to unwind in the USA and triggered the greatest recession since World War II. Although the crisis of 2007-08 was caused in the USA, their economy was not hit so hard in the Great Recession of 2009 as in Europe, and in particular in the Euro area. The USA also recovered more rapidly and sustained from the crisis than the Euro area. Additionally, the specific Euro (debt) crisis of 2010 led to a double-dip recession in the Euro area, not joined by the USA. This divergent post-crisis development since then accumulated to a considerable growth gap between the USA and the Euro area. What are the factors behind this different performance? Would a more aggressive fiscal and/or monetary policy in the Euro area have closed the growth gap? As our simulation exercises show: the answer is no. However, the unconventional monetary policy by the ECB since 2014-15 contributed to the most recent recovery in the Euro area. We identify the pivotal reason of Euro areas growth lagging behind the USA in the different experiences in the crises management. The USA has a long-lasting experience in handling financial crises. In historical comparison, the Euro area – the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) of the EU – is still a "teenager". The crises revealed, that the legal basis of the institutional set-up of EMU and hence of the Euro area was not enough crises-proven. Rescue instruments had newly to be implemented. The global financial crisis was the first great shock which was badly absorbed by the still quite heterogeneous Euro countries. The Euro area, shattered by a succession of external (global financial crisis, Great Recession) and internal (Euro crisis) shocks, could therefore not unfold its growth potential in the last decade. If – hypothetically – the Euro area would have profited from the faster-growing production inputs (capital and labour) as in the USA, the growth gap could have been closed.
WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (532), 33 pages
Online since: 31.03.2017 0:00
The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the European Union and Canada is the most ambitious (new generation) free trade agreement the EU has ever negotiated. It is a "mixed" agreement with EU and member countries competences. Most elements of the agreement for which the EU has "exclusive competence", including the chapter on tariffs and non-tariff barriers (the dismantling of all barriers to trade in goods and services and market access to foreign direct investment) can – after the European Parliament gave its consent on 15 February 2017 – be applied provisionally in spring 2017. With a specifically constructed macroeconomic trade and growth model for Austria, we simulate the impact of CETA on Austria. CETA will add 0.3 percent to Austria's real GDP in the medium run and will stimulate bilateral trade and FDI. Our model is a small prototype model and can easily be applied to other foreign trade agreements the EU is planning. A comparison shows that TTIP – which is "politically" dead now – would have the biggest impact (real GDP +1.7 percent).The almost finished negotiated EU-Japan foreign trade agreement would result in an increase of Austria's real GDP by 0.4 percent in the medium run.
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