This technical report presents the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT-US developed for US labour force projections accounting
for education and health. microWELT-US is the adaptation of an existing microsimulation model for Europe. The microsimulation
model supports a comparative analysis of the effect of socio-demographic change on future labour force participation. The
model is a continuous time, competing risk, interacting population model supporting alignment to existing population projections.
The model is built on the microWELT modelling platform implemented in Modgen, a freely available programming technology developed
and maintained at Statistics Canada. The model has a graphical user interface allowing the editing of parameters, scenario
creation, and exploration of simulation results. This report gives an overview of the model architecture, model parameters,
the base scenario, and key simulation results comparing the USA to Germany, France, and Spain.
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Der demographische Wandel wird in den kommenden Jahren in den meisten Industrienationen zu einer alternden und damit schrumpfenden
Erwerbsbevölkerung führen. Infolge der demographisch bedingten Schrumpfung der Erwerbsbevölkerung werden immer weniger Menschen
dazu beitragen, den materiellen Wohlstand eines Landes zu erwirtschaften. Das Österreichische Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
(WIFO) analysierte im Jahr 2019 im Auftrag der Bertelsmann Stiftung, welche Auswirkungen die zu erwartende demographische
Entwicklung in ausgewählten Branchen auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung und wichtige makroökonomische Größen haben
wird ("Makroökonomische Konsequenzen der Alterung und des gerichteten technologischen Wandels"). Basierend auf diesen Erkenntnissen
werden nun die Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Wirtschaft detaillierter abgeschätzt, wobei der Einfluss von
Bildung und Gesundheit sowie einer besseren Erwerbsintegration von Menschen mit gesundheitlichen Problemen auf die Entwicklung
der Erwerbsbeteiligung berücksichtigt wird.
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Online seit: 23.04.2021 0:00
In the coming years, demographic change will lead to an aging and subsequently shrinking workforce in most industrialized
nations. As a result of the demographically induced shrinkage of the workforce, fewer and fewer people will contribute to
generating a country's material prosperity. In 2019, the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) was commissioned by
the Bertelsmann Stiftung to analyse the impact that the expected demographic development in selected industries will have
on overall economic development and key macroeconomic variables ("Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing and Directed Technological
Change"). Based on these findings, the effects of demographic change on the economy are now estimated in more detail, considering
the influence of education and health as well as better labour force integration of people with health problems on the development
of labour force participation.
Diese Studie untersucht die sozialen Unterschiede in der Inanspruchnahme des Gesundheitssystems anhand einer Analyse der Gesundheitskosten
unterschiedlicher Bildungsgruppen im Lebensverlauf. Dazu werden in einem ersten Schritt durchschnittliche Alterskostenprofile
für Männer und Frauen nach höchster abgeschlossener Bildung ermittelt. In einem zweiten Schritt werden in einer dynamischen
Mikrosimulation unter Berücksichtigung von Änderungen der Lebenserwartung und der Zusammensetzung der österreichischen Bevölkerung
nach Alter und Bildung die Gesundheitskosten einzelner Kohorten und insgesamt geschätzt. Höhere Bildung geht, wie die Ergebnisse
zeigen, in den meisten Lebensabschnitten im Durchschnitt mit besserer Gesundheit und niedrigeren Gesundheitskosten einher.
Durch den positiven Zusammenhang zwischen Bildung und Lebenserwartung hat höhere Bildung aber auch einen gegenteiligen Kosteneffekt.
Der Gesamteffekt weist für Männer und Frauen teils unterschiedliche Muster auf. Insgesamt hat die Verbesserung der Bildungsstruktur
der Bevölkerung einen mäßig dämpfenden Effekt auf die Kostendynamik im Gesundheitssystem, der einen Teil des Kostenanstieges
infolge der Zunahme der Lebenserwartung kompensiert.
This paper studies the effect of population ageing on the inter- and intra-generational redistribution of income from a longitudinal
perspective, comparing lifetime measures of income and transfers by generation, gender, education and family characteristics.
For this end, we incorporate new disaggregated National Transfer Account (NTA) data and concepts of generational accounting
into the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT. This bottom-up modelling strategy makes it possible to project, for each
generation and socio-demographic group, the net present value of expected transfers. microWELT delivers detailed sociodemographic
projections consistent with Eurostat population projections but additionally providing the required detail concerning the
changes in the population composition by education and family characteristics. Also, the model allows incorporating mechanisms
to balance budgets over time in response to population ageing. Our study compares the results for Spain and Austria. We find
significant differences in the role of private and public transfers related to parenthood. While in both countries parents
privately transfer substantially more money to others, the Austrian welfare state fully compensates for these differences
through public transfers to parents. Such compensation is not observed in Spain.
This paper examines return and onward migration of immigrants to Austria, taking into account immigration type, country of
origin, and employment outcomes. The analysis is based on longitudinal administrative records of the Austrian Social Security
Database of immigrants who entered Austria between 2009 and 2017. It is the first such study for Austria. We find that about
25 percent of immigrants leave Austria within less than a year of their arrival and 50 percent within 5.5 years. Return and
onward migration is closely correlated with immigration type and origin. Refugees have a very low likelihood to leave Austria,
whereas labour migrants have a substantially higher one. Women are more likely to stay than men and immigrants from Turkey
have the lowest return probabilities among all origin groups. Emigration is also closely correlated with labour market success,
the likelihood to stay depending on the speed of labour market integration. The consequence of these patterns is that the
composition of the stock of immigrants living in Austria differs from the structure of new immigrants entering the country.
We apply dynamic microsimulation to project the size and structure of the first-generation immigrant population in Austria
as well as its labour market integration up to 2060. Our simulation results suggest that eventually, over 90 percent of the
resident immigrant population attains at least some labour market experience and that the differences in return and onward
migration across immigrant groups work to shift the structure of the immigrant population in the direction of third-country
In this paper, we present the results of a dynamic microsimulation analysis that examines how changes in the educational integration
of first- and second-generation immigrants would affect the future size of the Austrian labour force. Due to population ageing
and migration, the number and proportion of people with a migration background will increase significantly in the coming decades.
Differences in educational careers, as well as differences in labour market participation between the second generation of
migrants with EU or EFTA backgrounds and people without a migration background, would have only a minor impact on future labour
force participation dynamics. In contrast, closing education and labour force participation gaps for the second generation
of migrants with a third country background would lead to a significant increase in the size and qualification structure of
the working population.
This paper studies how changes in the population composition by education and family characteristics impact on indicators
of the economic effects of population ageing based on National Transfer Accounts (NTAs). NTAs constitute cross-sectional per-capita
age-profiles of the key variables of national accounts consumption, income, saving, and public transfers, incorporating an
estimation of private transfers. A variety of indicators based on NTA data combined with population projections was developed
in the literature, of which we have selected two for our analysis: the Support Ratio (SR) and the Impact Index (IMP). We complement
existing projections by using new disaggregated NTA data by education and family type, contrasting the results to the same
indicators based on NTAs by age. Our projection analysis is performed using the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT. The
model provides the required detailed socio-demographic projections and incorporates the NTA accounting framework. Our results
show that indicators based on disaggregated data can give a very distinct picture of the economic effects of population ageing,
as the burden of ageing is alleviated by the education expansion. Our study compares results for Austria and Spain.
The aim of this paper is twofold: First, it provides an overview of the socio-demographic core modules of the dynamic microsimulation
model microWELT. Second, it describes the essential socio-demographic characteristics of four European countries – Austria,
Spain, Finland, and UK as representatives of four welfare state regimes (conservative, mediterranean, universalistic, and
liberal) – and the processes that drive socio-demographic change which we aim at capturing with the model. MicroWELT is developed
as a tool for the comparative study of the distributional effects of four welfare state regimes, represented by the four studied
countries. Processes with potential links to welfare state types include 1. the intergenerational transmission of education,
2. childlessness and fertility by education, 3. partnership behaviours and lone parenthood, 4. age at leaving home, and 5.
mortality differentials by sex and education. Through microWELT projections, we identify the impact of these processes on
the future population composition by age, sex, education, and family characteristics of the studied countries. This paper
is part of a series of related papers and other resources which together build comprehensive documentation and presentation
of the research performed developing and using microWELT. All materials are available at the project website www.microWELT.eu.
This paper introduces the microWELT model. Starting from its objectives, we discuss design choices, the model architecture
and key features. microWELT provides a demographic projection tool reproducing Eurostat population projections but adding
details such as education, intergenerational transmission of education, fertility by education, partnership patterns, and
mortality differentials by education. The model integrates transfer flows as captured by the National Transfer Account (NTA)
and National Time Transfer Account (NTTA) accounting framework and calculates a set of indicators based on NTA literature.
Individual accounts allow the study of transfers over the whole life cycle by cohorts and between generations.