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WIFO-Publikationen: Thomas Horvath (101 Treffer)

Thomas Horvath, Serguei Kaniovski, Thomas Leoni, Martin Spielauer, Thomas Url (WIFO), Martina Lizarazo López, Thieß Petersen (Bertelsmann Stiftung Gütersloh)
Effekte von Bildung und Gesundheit auf Erwerbsbeteiligung und Gesamtwirtschaft im demographischen Wandel. Kurzfassung (The Impact of Education and Health on Labour Force Participation and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing. Executive Summary)
Auftraggeber: Bertelsmann Stiftung Gütersloh
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Bertelsmann Stiftung Gütersloh
Online seit: 30.04.2021 0:00
Der demographische Wandel wird in den kommenden Jahren in den meisten Industrienationen zu einer alternden und damit schrumpfenden Erwerbsbevölkerung führen. Infolge der demographisch bedingten Schrumpfung der Erwerbsbevölkerung werden immer weniger Menschen dazu beitragen, den materiellen Wohlstand eines Landes zu erwirtschaften. Das Österreichische Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (WIFO) analysierte im Jahr 2019 im Auftrag der Bertelsmann Stiftung, welche Auswirkungen die zu erwartende demographische Entwicklung in ausgewählten Branchen auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung und wichtige makroökonomische Größen haben wird ("Makroökonomische Konsequenzen der Alterung und des gerichteten technologischen Wandels"). Basierend auf diesen Erkenntnissen werden nun die Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Wirtschaft detaillierter abgeschätzt, wobei der Einfluss von Bildung und Gesundheit sowie einer besseren Erwerbsintegration von Menschen mit gesundheitlichen Problemen auf die Entwicklung der Erwerbsbeteiligung berücksichtigt wird.
Monographien, April 2021, 234 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Bundeskanzleramt
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Online seit: 26.04.2021 0:00
Der Beitrag zu "Migration und Integration" (Abschnitt 16 im Familienbericht) untersucht, wie sich die anfängliche Schlechterstellung von Zuwanderinnen und Zuwanderern mit zunehmender Aufenthaltsdauer und über Generationen hinweg verringert. Die Angleichung der Lebensbedingungen erfolgt bei Wohnen und Bildung relativ langsam. Im Kapitel "Familienpolitik in Europa" (Abschnitt 18 im Familienbericht) wird aufgezeigt, dass neben dem Ausgleich von finanziellen Lasten für Familien und der Förderung von Geburten die Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Beruf für Mütter und Väter in Europa ein wichtiges familienpolitisches Ziel geworden ist. Im Kapitel "Verteilungswirkungen familienpolitischer Leistungen in Österreich" (Abschnitt 19 im Familienbericht) werden Struktur und Verteilungswirkungen familienpolitischer Leistungen in Österreich sowie deren Finanzierung untersucht.
In the coming years, demographic change will lead to an aging and subsequently shrinking workforce in most industrialized nations. As a result of the demographically induced shrinkage of the workforce, fewer and fewer people will contribute to generating a country's material prosperity. In 2019, the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) was commissioned by the Bertelsmann Stiftung to analyse the impact that the expected demographic development in selected industries will have on overall economic development and key macroeconomic variables ("Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing and Directed Technological Change"). Based on these findings, the effects of demographic change on the economy are now estimated in more detail, considering the influence of education and health as well as better labour force integration of people with health problems on the development of labour force participation.
Monographien, Dezember 2020, 126 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Arbeitsmarktservice Österreich
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Online seit: 14.12.2020 0:00
 
Die Stellung von Frauen und Männern in der Arbeitswelt wird von einer Vielzahl an Indikatoren beeinflusst. Vor diesem Hintergrund hat das WIFO in Abstimmung mit dem AMS einen "Gleichstellungsindex Arbeitsmarkt" konzipiert, der 30 Indikatoren aus vier Themenfeldern – Arbeit, Einkommen, Bildung und Familie – zu einem Index bündelt, um in aggregierter Form die Arbeitsmarktlage von Frauen und Männern zu skizzieren. Die für die vier Themenfelder berechneten Indikatoren erfassen die Rolle von Frauen und Männern auf dem Arbeitsmarkt quantitativ, spiegeln ihre Einkommens- und Beschäftigungsperspektiven wider, zeigen die Aus- und Weiterbildungsstruktur für beide Geschlechter sowie die Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Beruf. 2020 erarbeitete das WIFO eine Aktualisierung der 2015 und 2017 publizierten Ergebnisse.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (618), 21 Seiten
Online seit: 12.11.2020 0:00
This paper studies the effect of population ageing on the inter- and intra-generational redistribution of income from a longitudinal perspective, comparing lifetime measures of income and transfers by generation, gender, education and family characteristics. For this end, we incorporate new disaggregated National Transfer Account (NTA) data and concepts of generational accounting into the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT. This bottom-up modelling strategy makes it possible to project, for each generation and socio-demographic group, the net present value of expected transfers. microWELT delivers detailed sociodemographic projections consistent with Eurostat population projections but additionally providing the required detail concerning the changes in the population composition by education and family characteristics. Also, the model allows incorporating mechanisms to balance budgets over time in response to population ageing. Our study compares the results for Spain and Austria. We find significant differences in the role of private and public transfers related to parenthood. While in both countries parents privately transfer substantially more money to others, the Austrian welfare state fully compensates for these differences through public transfers to parents. Such compensation is not observed in Spain.
In this paper, we present the results of a dynamic microsimulation analysis that examines how changes in the educational integration of first- and second-generation immigrants would affect the future size of the Austrian labour force. Due to population ageing and migration, the number and proportion of people with a migration background will increase significantly in the coming decades. Differences in educational careers, as well as differences in labour market participation between the second generation of migrants with EU or EFTA backgrounds and people without a migration background, would have only a minor impact on future labour force participation dynamics. In contrast, closing education and labour force participation gaps for the second generation of migrants with a third country background would lead to a significant increase in the size and qualification structure of the working population.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (613), 39 Seiten
Online seit: 20.10.2020 0:00
As part of a larger research project, we survey existing data sets and research results on immigrants' integration success in Austria focusing on educational and labour market outcomes. We consider different registers as well as survey data available to researchers on a regular basis and compare to what extent these data contain relevant information on immigrants and their educational and employment careers and survey the research that has been conducted based on the different datasets. We also aim to identify research gaps and potential data gaps resulting from the fragmentation of relevant information over different data sets. While different data sources contain different aspects relevant for integration research, a "complete" picture of integration processes as well as the identification of supporting and hindering factors for successful integration typically requires a combination of different data sets that may also enrich longitudinal (register-based) individual data by more detailed characteristics from survey data.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (612), 19 Seiten
Online seit: 15.10.2020 0:00
This paper studies how changes in the population composition by education and family characteristics impact on indicators of the economic effects of population ageing based on National Transfer Accounts (NTAs). NTAs constitute cross-sectional per-capita age-profiles of the key variables of national accounts consumption, income, saving, and public transfers, incorporating an estimation of private transfers. A variety of indicators based on NTA data combined with population projections was developed in the literature, of which we have selected two for our analysis: the Support Ratio (SR) and the Impact Index (IMP). We complement existing projections by using new disaggregated NTA data by education and family type, contrasting the results to the same indicators based on NTAs by age. Our projection analysis is performed using the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT. The model provides the required detailed socio-demographic projections and incorporates the NTA accounting framework. Our results show that indicators based on disaggregated data can give a very distinct picture of the economic effects of population ageing, as the burden of ageing is alleviated by the education expansion. Our study compares results for Austria and Spain.
The aim of this paper is twofold: First, it provides an overview of the socio-demographic core modules of the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT. Second, it describes the essential socio-demographic characteristics of four European countries – Austria, Spain, Finland, and UK as representatives of four welfare state regimes (conservative, mediterranean, universalistic, and liberal) – and the processes that drive socio-demographic change which we aim at capturing with the model. MicroWELT is developed as a tool for the comparative study of the distributional effects of four welfare state regimes, represented by the four studied countries. Processes with potential links to welfare state types include 1. the intergenerational transmission of education, 2. childlessness and fertility by education, 3. partnership behaviours and lone parenthood, 4. age at leaving home, and 5. mortality differentials by sex and education. Through microWELT projections, we identify the impact of these processes on the future population composition by age, sex, education, and family characteristics of the studied countries. This paper is part of a series of related papers and other resources which together build comprehensive documentation and presentation of the research performed developing and using microWELT. All materials are available at the project website www.microWELT.eu.
This paper introduces the microWELT model. Starting from its objectives, we discuss design choices, the model architecture and key features. microWELT provides a demographic projection tool reproducing Eurostat population projections but adding details such as education, intergenerational transmission of education, fertility by education, partnership patterns, and mortality differentials by education. The model integrates transfer flows as captured by the National Transfer Account (NTA) and National Time Transfer Account (NTTA) accounting framework and calculates a set of indicators based on NTA literature. Individual accounts allow the study of transfers over the whole life cycle by cohorts and between generations.
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