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Weitere Publikationen: Martin Spielauer (34 Treffer)

Economic Analysis and Policy, 2022, 75, S.1-25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2022.05.002
Auftraggeber: Bundesministerium für Wissenschaft, Forschung und Wirtschaft
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Finnish Centre for Pensions – Universitat de Barcelona – Institute for Economic Research Finland
Demographic Research, 2021, 44, S.1-48
Family patterns in Western countries have changed substantially across birth cohorts. The spread of unmarried cohabitation, the decline and postponement of marriage and fertility, and the rise in nonmarital births, partnership instability, and repartnering lead to an increasing diversity in family life courses. In this paper we demonstrate how to set up a tool to explore family life trajectories. This tool models the changing family patterns, taking into account the complex interrelationships between childbearing and partnership processes. We build a microsimulation model parameterised using retrospective partnership and childbearing data. The data cover women born since 1940 in Italy, Great Britain, and two Scandinavian countries (Norway and Sweden), three significantly different cultural and institutional contexts of partnering and childbearing in Europe. We guide readers through the modelling of individual life events to obtain a set of aggregate estimates, providing information on the power, technical structure, and underlying assumptions of microsimulations. Validation of the simulated family life courses against their real-world equivalents shows that the simulations not only closely replicate observed childbearing and partnership processes, but also provide high quality predictions when compared to more recent fertility indicators. Using observed population estimates to systematically validate the results both validates our model and increases confidence that microsimulations satisfactorily replicate the behaviour of the original population. We create and validate a microsimulation model that can be used not only to explore mechanisms throughout the family life course but also to set up scenarios and predict future family patterns.
Using a highly stylized dynamic microsimulation model, we project the labor force of the United States up to the year 2060 and contrast these projections with projections for Germany to assess differential effects on outcomes. The projections are consistent with the US Census Bureau's and Eurostat's demographic projections. Our modeling approach allows to show and quantify how policy changes the future size of the labor force, which we assess with a series of what-if scenarios. Both the USA and Germany are expected to undergo demographic aging, but their demographic fundamentals differ starkly. This has strong implications for their labor force developments. According to our microsimulation, the US labor force will, despite population aging, increase by 16.2 percent in the age groups 15 to 74 (corresponding to 25.2 million workers) between 2020 and 2060, while Germany will experience a decline by 10.7 percent (4.4 million workers). In these baseline projections, improvements in the education structure will add about two million persons to the US labor force and about half a million persons to the German labor force by 2060. In the what-if scenarios, we examine the implications of improvements in the educational structure of the population and of policies which address the health impediments for labor force participation. Of the educational scenarios that we evaluate, increasing the number of persons who achieve more than lower education has the strongest positive impact on labor force participation, relative to the number of additional years of schooling implied by the various scenarios. Shifting people from intermediate to higher education levels also increases labor force participation in higher age groups, however, this is partially offset by lock in effects at younger ages. Our projections highlight that improvements in the labor market integration of people with health limitations provide a particularly promising avenue to increase labor force participation rates and thus help to address the challenges posed by demographic aging. If the health gap in participation rates in the United States were similar to that currently observed in Sweden, the labor force in 2060 would be larger by about 14.9 million persons.
Family patterns in Western countries have substantially changed across the 1940 to 1990 birth cohorts. Adults born more recently enter more often unmarried cohabitations and marry later, if at all. They have children later and fewer of them; births take place in a non-marital union more often and, due to the declining stability of couple relationships, in more than one partnership. These changes have led to an increasing diversity in family life courses. In this paper, we present a microsimulation model of family life trajectories, which models the changing family patterns taking into account the complex interrelationships between childbearing and partnership processes. The microsimulation model is parameterised to retrospective data for women born since 1940 in Italy, Great Britain and two Nordic countries (Norway and Sweden), representing three significantly different cultural and institutional contexts of partnering and child bearing in Europe. Validation of the simulated family life courses against their real-world equivalents shows that the simulations not only closely replicate observed childbearing and partnership processes, but also give good predictions when compared to more recent fertility indicators. We conclude that the presented microsimulation model is suitable for exploring changing family dynamics and outline potential research questions and further applications.
Marian Fink, Jitka Janová, Danuše Nerudová, Jan Pavel, Margit Schratzenstaller, Friedrich Sindermann-Sienkiewicz, Martin Spielauer
Intereconomics – Review of European Economic Policy, 2019, 54, (3), S.146-154, https://rdcu.be/bFkuW
The design of tax systems has a considerable impact on the personal distribution of income and wealth at the household and the individual level. Due to gender-differentiated socio-economic conditions, taxation may affect men and women differently. One of the most important areas of taxation is the personal income tax, which may have a gender-differentiated effect on work incentives and influence the distribution of paid and unpaid work between men and women. The paper presents an overview of the microsimulation results for selected provisions of the personal income tax system done with EUROMOD (a tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union) for six selected Member States: Germany, Austria, Spain, Czech Republic, United Kingdom and Sweden.
FairTax Working Paper Series, 2019, (24), 80 Seiten, http://umu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1300801/FULLTEXT01.pdf
European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program 2014-2018
The design of tax systems has a considerable impact on the distribution of income and wealth at the household and the individual level, and due to gender-differentiated socio-economic conditions also in a gender perspective. One of the most important areas of taxation is the taxation of personal incomes. Besides the level of income tax rates and the design of the income tax schedule (progressive versus flat tax schedule), the system of household taxation (joint versus individual taxation), the determination of taxable income and the design of tax exemptions (tax allowances versus credits), particularly child-related ones, are crucial determinants of the distributional effects and work incentives of the personal income tax. The study presents an overview of the microsimulation results for selected provisions of the personal income tax system on income distribution and work incentives. The microsimulations are based on EUROMOD for six selected EU countries: Germany, Austria, Spain, Czech Republic, UK, and Sweden, countries of different "families" of welfare and taxation traditions.
in: Chantal Hicks, Martin Spielauer, Kevin Moore, Option Analysis for a New Dynamic Microsimulation Model of Retirement Income for Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC)
Buchbeiträge, 2019
Population projections are key for policy making and planning. Currently, most countries, and international organisations like the World Bank and the United Nations, produce population projections using the cohort-component method. The method is simple and applicable in absence of detailed data sources. But it is limited to projecting a population by age, sex, and very few additional variables, such as province or broad education categories. A more advanced – but still uncommon – approach involves dynamic micro-simulation models, where populations are represented by large samples of individual people and their life-courses are simulated over time. This approach is more complex, but has major advantages: it can produce detailed projections of a broad variety of individual characteristics, it can model realistic life-courses and their diversity, and it supports the modelling of interactions between people. Such models also support more detailed planning and policy development and can provide the demographic core of more extensive socioeconomic models. While currently applied almost exclusively in the developed world, the benefits can be highly significant in the context of developing countries.
Manuskripte, 2019
Paper presented at the International Microsimulation Conference 2019
International Journal of Microsimulation, 2018, 11, 25 Seiten, S.84-108, https://www.microsimulation.org/IJM/V11_2/IJM_11_2_2.pdf
This paper investigates how retirement decisions, in interaction with demographic changes, impact on pension system sustainability. To do so, we introduce behaviour into a dynamic microsimulation model applied to the Spanish case. Specifically, the retirement decision is modelled using a reduced-form survival model that provides information on retirement hazards, which are then used to calculate times to retirement within the microsimulation model. This model allows us to account for behavioural responses. For example, the behavioural reaction to the 2011 reform improves pension system sustainability, despite individuals opting to retire later to obtain higher benefits. The positive effect (increase in contributions and reduction in time spent in retirement) is greater than the negative effect (increase in pension levels). Additionally, the model allows us to show how the positive effects of the education transition and higher rates of female and older worker participation contribute to reducing the negative impact of population ageing.
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