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Using the Austrian Business Survey between 2011 and 2016, we study how firms' individual credit market experiences influence their beliefs about the bank lending policy. Firms that have recently experienced a loan rejection are more likely to believe that the lending policy is restrictive. We see similar effects for firms that were granted loans, but with conditions worse than anticipated. Exploiting the panel structure shows that firms without recent credit market experience are less likely to change their beliefs, which converge towards the middle category. Our findings are in line with theories of rational inattention and with asymmetric experience effects.

The EU Directive on Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence has sparked fierce debate about the regulation of supply chains. The directive’s objectives are aligned with European values. However, it raises concerns that the compliance costs of social and environmental regulations may be privatised in complex supply networks, particularly in third countries with weak enforcement mechanisms. This paper suggests options to make the directive more effective and efficient. It suggests excluding countries with sufficient regulatory systems and focusing only on supplier-buyer relationships instead of the entire network. Public agencies should set harmonised regulatory standards, interpret the regulations and organise a private certification scheme in which certification companies assume liabilities. The proposed system resembles the market for financial auditors.

Austria is a small open economy that in the last decades underwent two different waves of increasing trade integration: one with Eastern Europe and one with China. Drawing on trade theory, this paper studies the effects of increases in trade with China and Eastern Europe on labour market dynamics in Austrian NUTS-4 regions for two ten-year periods between 1995 and 2015. Given the limited data available, the current analysis could not identify significant effects on aggregate labour dynamics neither for rising imports from Eastern Europe or China, nor for rising exports to Eastern Europe. However, there is weak evidence that exports to China have facilitated employment growth, especially in high quality segments. Overall, these results add a cautious perspective to the discussion of import competition.

We analyse the (techno- and macro-)economic and distributive effects of a transformation to a renewable electricity system in Austria by 2030, as stipulated by the Austrian government. For the analysis, the macroeconomic model DYNK and ATLANTIS, a partial model of the electricity market, were expanded and linked. Four transformation scenarios conforming with the 100 percent renewable electricity target in Austria on a national balance are examined, integrated into a consistent scenario for the development of the European electricity system. Additionally, sensitivity analyses with respect to the gas price are performed. Although all scenarios achieve 100 percent renewable electricity on a national balance, the analysis shows that electricity from gas-fired power plants will still be needed in 2030 to balance variable renewable generation, to avoid grid congestion, and for heat generation from combined heat and power plants in winter months. Another main conclusion from the simulations is that the transition towards a renewable electricity sector is almost neutral from a socio-economic perspective. It does neither reveal harmful impacts nor lead to high multiplier effects from additional investment. With high natural gas prices in the sensitivity scenarios a decrease in GDP and household income, which might motivate redistributive policies, can be observed.

ASCII schlägt eine Überarbeitung der EU-Richtlinie zur Lieferkettensorgfaltspflicht vor, der EU Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive. Die Richtlinie basiert auf europäischen Werten und ist zu begrüßen. Um eine kosteneffiziente Umsetzung zu ermöglichen, sollte sie sich auf die Überwachung von Zulieferern konzentrieren, anstatt auf bilaterale Beziehungen zwischen Käufern und Verkäufern. Negativ- und Positivlisten von Ländern und Zulieferern sollten eingeführt werden. Solche Listen enthalten ausländische Zulieferer, denen die Teilnahme an EU-Lieferketten verboten (Negativlisten) oder erlaubt (Positivlisten) ist. Mit Unternehmen auf Negativlisten dürfen keine Geschäfte getätigt werden. Bei Verträgen mit Unternehmen, die auf Positivlisten stehen, müssen EU-Importeure keine Sorgfaltsprüfung der Unternehmen durchführen. Dies senkt die Gesamtkosten der Verordnung für EU-Importeure, verringert die Wahrscheinlichkeit unerwünschter Nebenwirkungen und macht das Instrument wirksamer. Die Nichteinhaltung durch einen ausländischen Zulieferer kann zur Streichung von der Liste führen, was einem EU-weiten Exportverbot gleichkommt und somit die Marktmacht des EU-Binnenmarktes nutzt. Die Wirksamkeit würde auch dadurch erhöht, dass die Rechtsunsicherheit für Unternehmen verringert und der Geltungsbereich der Verordnung über in der EU ansässige Produktionsnetzwerke hinaus ausgedehnt würde.

ASCII proposes a revision of the EU directive on supply chain due diligence, the EU Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive. The directive is based on European values and is to be welcomed. ASCII suggests that the Directive should focus, where possible, on direct monitoring of suppliers rather than on bilateral relationships between buyers and sellers. The directive should be amended to allow the use of negative and positive lists of countries and suppliers. Such lists contain foreign suppliers that are prohibited (negative lists) or authorised (positive lists) to participate in EU supply chains. When contracting with companies on positive lists, EU importers do not have to carry out due diligence on the companies. They are prohibited from doing business with companies on negative lists. The Directive will continue to apply to non-listed companies. This reduces the overall cost of the regulation for EU importers, reduces the likelihood of unwanted side-effects and makes the instrument more effective, as non-compliance by a foreign supplier leads to delisting throughout the EU, not just with a single buyer. It would also increase effectiveness by reducing legal uncertainty and extending the scope of the regulation beyond EU-based production networks.

This article examines the impact of membership in the European Union (EU) on foreign direct investments (FDI). In contrast to previous studies, the overall effect of EU membership is disaggregated by countries that joined the EU before 2004 (EU 15) and those that joined after 2004 (Central and Eastern European – CEE). This disaggregation is motivated by differences between the two groups in terms of their historical background, GDP levels and motives for FDI. Furthermore, the effects of EU membership are estimated at the country level. Using a structural FDI gravity model and applying recent advances in the gravity estimation literature, it is shown that membership of the EU has a substantial positive impact on both inward and outward FDI stocks. In particular, there is considerable heterogeneity in the impact of EU membership, with EU 15 countries experiencing mainly an increase in inward FDI, while CEE countries experience a surge in outward FDI.

Globalisation has had undesirable effects on the labour standards embedded in the products we consume. This paper proposes an ex-ante evaluation of supply chain due diligence regulations, such as the EU Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). We construct a full-scale network model derived from structural business statistics of 30 million EU firms to quantify the likelihood of links to firms potentially involved in human rights abuses in the European supply chain. The 900 million supply links of these firms are modelled in a way that is consistent with multiregional input-output data, EU import data, and stylized facts of firm-level production networks. We find that this network exhibits a small world effect with three degrees of separation, meaning that most firms are no more than three steps away from each other in the network. Consequently, we find that about 8.5 percent of EU companies are at risk of having child or forced labour in the first tier of their supply chains, about 82.4 percent are likely to have such offenders at the second tier and more than 99.1 percent have such offenders at the third tier. We also profile companies by country, sector, and size for the likelihood of having human rights violations or child and forced labour violations at a given tier in their supply chain, revealing considerable heterogeneity across EU companies. Our results show that supply chain due diligence regulations that focus on monitoring individual buyer-supplier links, as currently proposed in the CSDDD, are likely to be ineffective due to a high degree of redundancy and the fact that individual company value chains cannot be properly isolated from the global supply network. Rather, to maximise cost-effectiveness without compromising due diligence coverage, we suggest that regulations should focus on monitoring individual suppliers.

This paper advances a dynamic rationale for competitiveness policy that focuses on an economy's ability to evolve in order to achieve high real incomes along with desired qualitative changes in the socio-economic system. It highlights that the ubiquitous "rationalities of failure", either of markets, governments, or systems, are rooted in a peculiar habit of accepting hypothetical perfect states as normative benchmarks. In contrast, competitiveness policy starts from the objectives that the system wants to achieve. By combining the structuralist ontology of the micro, meso and macro levels of development with the basic system functions of evolutionary change, a general typology is developed that differentiates, organizes, and integrates various economic policies according to their respective contributions to the evolvability of the system. Among other advantages, the proposed concept of competitiveness policy allows (i) to replace the negative "logic of failure" with the active pursuit of dynamic development goals, (ii) to break the ideologically afflicted dichotomy between "vertical" and "horizontal" policies and (iii) to better align the theoretical rationale with the actual perception of the societal purpose of public interventions by most policy agents.

In cross-section gravity models the two-way cluster-robust standard errors of the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimates tend to be considerably downward biased. However, two-way clustering can be avoided if intra-cluster correlation is induced by country-specific trade shocks with uniform pass through (equi-correlation) and the gravity model includes exporter and importer country fixed effects. In this case the pseudo-within-transformation of the PPML estimator projects out the corresponding components of the disturbances. In Monte Carlo simulations the Pustejovsky and Tipton (2018) bias correction for independent disturbances (i.e., ignoring clustering) reveals just a small downward bias of the estimated standard errors and confidence intervals with nearly correct coverage rates. Under deviations from equicorrelation the bias is somewhat larger, but still comparable to the bias of the cluster-robust standard errors with Pustejovsky and Tipton (2018) bias correction.