WIFO-Konjunkturtest
Part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme
of Business and Consumer Surveys
WIFO-Konjunkturtest
Part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme
of Business and Consumer Surveys
![Logo](https://www.wifo.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/normal-reproduction-high-resolution.jpg)
WIFO-Konjunkturampel (economic traffic light)
The results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey) for June once again show a slight deterioration in business assessments of the economy compared to the previous month, which remain in the skeptical range. At –6.7 points (seasonally adjusted), the WIFO economic climate index was 2.5 points below the previous month's value (–4.2 points). The overall economic situation assessments showed a deterioration (–4.9 points) and, at –6.8 points, were again noticeably below the zero line that separates positive from negative assessments. Economic expectations, on the other hand, have barely changed (–0.3 points) and remain in the skeptical range at –6.5 points. The economic picture continues to be dominated by the weak industrial economy. Accordingly, the WIFO economic traffic light is showing "red" again, signalling a decline in economic momentum.
Economic Sentiment remains broadly stable in the EU and the euro area; Employment Expectations decline further
In June 2024, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) remained largely unchanged in both the EU and the euro area (–0.2 points to, respectively, 96.4 points and 95.9 points). The Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) declined for the third consecutive month in both areas, approaching (EU: –0.8 points to 100.4 points) or undercutting (euro area: –1.6 points to 99.7 points) its long-term average. While the ESI has remained essentially flat over the first six months of the year, around 4 points below its long-term average, the slow but continuous decline in the EEI has narrowed the gap between the two indicators.
Credit Conditions of Austrian Companies
The credit questions of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey) allow us to present the assessments and experiences of companies with regard to bank lending. The credit questions are asked quarterly in February, May, August and November.
In May 2024, the banks' willingness to lend (i.e.: the credit hurdle fell) - defined as the balance of the proportion of companies that describe the banks' lending as accommodating (positive values) and the proportion of companies that describe the banks' lending as restrictive (negative values) - improved compared to the previous quarter (+4.6 points) but remained deep in negative territory at –18.2 points. Assessments by company size continue to show differences: the credit hurdle is higher for smaller companies (less than 50 employees) (–21.6 points) than for medium-sized companies (50 to 250 employees –12.3 points) and large companies (more than 250 employees –8.0 points).
The survey results show a decline in demand for credit (–2.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter), which at 19.6 percent in the aggregate (excluding retail) is now below the long-term average (21.0%). In the construction industry, 21.4 percent of companies reported a need for credit, in manufacturing 16.8 percent, in the service sectors 20.9 percent and in retail 16.4 percent. In terms of company size (excluding retail), 20.3 percent of smaller companies (less than 50 employees) recently reported a need for credit, as did 20.3 percent of medium-sized companies and 19.0 percent of larger companies (more than 250 employees).
The survey results show a decline in demand for credit (–2.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter), which at 19.6 percent in the aggregate (excluding retail) is now below the long-term average (21.0 percent). In the construction industry, 21.4 percent of companies reported a need for credit, in manufacturing 16.8 percent, in the service sectors 20.9 percent and in retail 16.4 percent. In terms of company size (excluding retail), 20.3 percent of smaller companies (less than 50 employees) recently reported a need for credit, as did 20.3 percent of medium-sized companies and 19.0 percent of larger companies (more than 250 employees).
Of the companies with credit requirements (excluding retail), around 39.3 percent had to cut back on the amount or conditions (27.6 percent reported worse conditions, 3.7 percent lower amount and 8.0 percent worse conditions and lower amount than expected). This figure is still well above the average of the past five years (29.2 percent). Only around 28.0 percent of companies with a need for credit were able to obtain it as expected (5-year average: 46.7 percent). At 33.5 percent, the proportion of companies with credit requirements that did not receive a loan or did not apply for one was also above average (5-year average: 24.2 percent; around 7.4 percent of all companies surveyed) because the loan application was rejected by the bank (7.0 percent), the conditions were unacceptable (14.5 percent) or they did not try to obtain a loan due to lack of opportunity (12.0 percent).
Credit Constraints and Credit Needs
Recent issues: WIFO-Konjunkturtest
Quarterly results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtests
Special issues: WIFO-Konjunkturtest
Recent issues: WIFO-Investitionsbefragung
Contact
For general enquiries, please contact konjunkturtest@wifo.ac.at.