Co-creating a desirable and resilient future for Lienz, Austria – a local case study in socio-economic scenario development

The aim of this case study was to conduct a participatory approach to socioeconomic scenario development in the city of Lienz (East Tyrol) and to suggest this process-oriented approach as an element of an integrated guiding and decision support tool for local resilience and risk management to policy makers, business leaders, and civil society. The paper takes a socio-economic perspective and describes the settings of the case study, the process, and approach taken for co-creating two distinct normative socio-economic scenario narratives for the city of Lienz: a desirable or resilient future and an undesirable or stagnant future. Results are presented as sector-specific scenario narratives. Matching the local scenario narratives with the global shared socioeconomic pathways, it derives that local peculiarities such as population decline due to outmigration trends or decentralised manufacturing industry and educational institutions were judged to be critical factors in securing local resilience for a prospering future.