Cyclical Split in the World Economy

The major industrialized countries presently find themselves at different stages of the business cycle. While in the U. S. A. the long awaited upturn seems to have started, activity is slowing in Europe and Japan. Forecasts of GDP growth in 1992 have to be revised downwards to 1¾ percent for OECD Europe. A recovery may be expected for the second half of 1992, gaining gradually momentum in 1992 to yield annual rates of growth of 3 percent and 2½ percent, respectively. While inflation will further ease unemployment remains high.