Future Trends in International Tourism

Projections for the global tourism industry up to 2010 envisage annual growth rates of about 3 percent (at constant prices and exchange rates) both for expenditures made in the course of foreign travel ("tourism imports") and for revenues from international tourist travel ("tourism exports"). International tourist travel by Europeans will grow at a slightly higher rate (+3.5 percent p.a.) than global tourism. European export revenues, on the other hand, will rise at a slower pace than the average of 20 countries (+2.8 percent p.a.). Within Europe, EMU members will have relatively lower import growth rates (+3.3 percent) while, at +2.9 percent, their annual export growth rate is higher than the European average. The forecasts point to some flattening of the long-term growth curve even though international tourism, in spite of some weakening, can still expect to achieve a long-term growth rate that is markedly higher on average than the overall economic growth rate. The trend is based on the assumption that tourist travel will gradually lose its status as a luxury commodity and that some degree of saturation will set in, which will dampen long-term growth of tourism expenditures. In addition, the growing pressure felt by people to provide for private health and pension insurance coverage, together with purchasing power problems resulting from insecurities in terms of jobs and financing will boost demand for cheaper or more cost-effective offers, which in turn will reduce average expenditure per overnight stay. The long-term export forecast for Austria is +2.8 percent p.a. in real terms. Compared to the European trend, this will enable Austria to maintain its market share. The benefits to be reaped from economic and monetary union and the initiatives taken towards structural improvements are the main factors driving the development. With regard to foreign travel by Austrians, the growth rate will settle at about 2.5 percent p.a. in real terms.