Cyclical Weakening Accentuates Regional Disparities

Three factors have shaped the regional business cycle pattern in the 3rd quarter 1995: First, the pace of economic growth continues to be determined by manufacturing industry. The construction sector is in stagnation, the fall in tourism demand has become more marked towards the seasonal peak. With exports gradually reacting to last spring's exchange rate shifts, gains in industrial output have become notably smaller. Second, the necessary reining back of government deficits is set to weaken domestic demand. Neither private consumption nor construction investment may be expected to cushion the downturn in activity, as has been typical in previous cycles benefiting mainly the Vienna region. Third, the cyclical weakening has not been fully synchronized across regions, with relatively small leads and lags producing rather large growth differentials. A comparison of developments between the major regions shows, that growth differentials have been large only for energy generation, depending on the level of water carried by rivers. Excluding energy supply, growth rates were highly similar – 1 percent on the East, 1.2 percent respectively in the West and South – with the major disparities showing up within each region. Upper Austria has so far been spared by the downturn, its gross regional product (excluding agriculture and energy supply) expanded by 2.7 percent (in volume, year-on-year) in the 3rd quarter 1995. The economies of Vorarlberg (+1.7 percent) and Styria (+2.1 percent) also performed above the national average, though in the first case with significantly weaker momentum than in the previous quarters. Vienna (+1.3 percent) and Lower Austria (+1.1 percent) were close to the national average, with the former benefiting from a "soft landing" of construction activity and relatively lively tourism demand. In the Tyrol (+0.3 percent), Salzburg and Carinthia (–0.6 percent, respectively) the setback in tourism demand had a much greater effect; Salzburg and Carinthia were also hit by a fall in construction output. In Burgenland, the easternmost Federal state, the hitherto vigorous upswing collapsed rather sharply, output fell 4 percent below the year-earlier level.