Forecast of Employment, Unemployment Rate and Wage Bill of the Austrian Health Insurance Fund by Federal Provinces for the Years 2022 to 2027

The sharp rise in consumer prices is clouding growth expectations for the Austrian economy over the next few years. In its latest medium-term forecast, WIFO expects the economy to slow down significantly in the next few years. Based on these forecasts, the number of dependent employees insured by Austrian Health Insurance Fund (ÖGK) should still increase by 3.1 percent in 2022. In 2023, there will be a significant slowdown to +0.6 percent, and growth in the number of dependent employees insured by ÖGK will not exceed the one-percent mark in subsequent years either. Due to the higher wage agreements that can be expected in times of high inflation, growth in wage bill should be 8.0 percent in 2023 and decline as inflation gradually subsides in subsequent years. Since the marked slowdown in momentum in 2023 and 2024 will be mainly due to lower export growth, the tourism-intensive federal provinces or those more dependent on domestic demand should be favoured, while the industrial- and export-intensive federal provinces are at a slight disadvantage.