An Outlook on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Austria in 2021 and 2022

This report presents a methodological approach that allows quantify the effects of changes in economic development in Austria on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a timely manner. This tool, whose core is the input-output table of the Austrian economy, is applied to determine the impact on GHG emissions of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 and the recovery of the economy in 2021 and 2022 as projected by WIFO. According to the estimates, GHG emissions in 2020 were down by more than 7 percent compared to 2019. In 2021, they are expected to increase by 2 percent compared to 2020 and the increase in 2022 compared to 2021 will be 3.7 percent. Consequently, in 2022, GHG emissions are still expected to be almost 2 million t lower than in 2019, slightly lower than in 1990, the base year of the Kyoto Protocol (78.4 million t CO2 equivalents). The calculations exclude land use, land use change and forestry. Compared to the WIFO forecast for economic growth in the lockdown scenario for 2021 of +1.5 percent and +4.7 percent in 2022, the expected increase in emissions thus differs significantly. The different rates of change are due to the fact that manufacturing, which includes emission-intensive sectors, will grow more strongly in 2021 and sectors with lower emissions such as catering, and accommodation will only catch up in 2022.