High-frequency Business Cycle Monitoring

In this study we collect a large number of high-frequency indicators and analyse their informational content with respect to the activity of the Austrian economy. This is done by cross-correlating these and other commonly used indicators for different reference series, including GDP, manufacturing, construction, parts of the service sector, investments, consumption, imports and exports. Based on these findings, we specify dynamic factor models (DFM) for the reference series. This allows for a real-time assessment and forecast of GDP through both a direct (Weekly WIFO Economic Index – WWWI) and an indirect approach (Cluster of Dynamic Factor Models – CDFM). A selection of high-frequency indicators is also available via the IHS Economic High-Frequency Monitor.