Medical Care and Demographic Change

In the coming decades, Austria will be confronted with a significant demographic change. As the need for medical care increases with age, the demand for medical services will rise solely due to the ageing of the population. This is contrasted by a comparatively unfavourable medical demography. This article quantifies the current and future volume of medical services in Vienna. The basis for determining the current demand for medical services is a survey of Viennese doctors on the current distribution of medical services provided by age groups. The results of the survey are combined with projections of the demographic development of the population and the physician or graduate population (to determine the supply of medical services) in order to identify the future level of care. As the results show, there is a significant gap until 2050: even under optimistic assumptions it is estimated to be more than one tenth of the demand.