Effects of the COVID-19-related Economic Slump on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Austria. Results of a First Assessment

In the present analysis, the effects of measures taken to limit the spread of COVID-19 on greenhouse gas emissions in Austria are examined. For this purpose, a new, lean and flexible model, ALICE, was developed, which quantifies the short to medium-term effects of changes in production and consumption with regard to value added and emissions. The model results show not only the direct consequences, but also the consequences resulting from the interdependence of the economic cycle. The model analysis presented here is based on the forecast published by WIFO in April 2020, which predicts a decline in real gross value added by 5¼ percent in 2020. According to the definition of the greenhouse gas inventory, a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions in Austria by 7.1 percent is expected in 2020 compared to 2019. Uncertainty about the actual reduction in emissions exists with respect to the final actual distribution of the production effects and the behaviour of households throughout the year.