New Energy Scenarios 2050 for Austria

The new energy scenarios for Austria up to the year 2050 take into account the international climate policy after the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in 2015 ("COP21"). According to the UNFCCC definition, a WEM scenario ("with existing measures", with measures until May 2016) and a WAM-plus scenario ("with additional measures") are modelled. The scenarios analyse the effects of different climate and energy policy packages on energy consumption and added value. The WAM-plus scenario quantifies the impact of additional, ambitious ("plus") measures to increase energy efficiency, renewable energy use and technological change that meet the long-term goals of the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to innovations and cost improvements in the areas of energy efficiency and renewable energy, behavioural and lifestyle changes in energy-relevant demand patterns and targeted infrastructure investments are depicted. The WAM-plus scenario is a global climate protection scenario that reflects a global commitment to achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. The scenarios are modelled by coupling several technology-oriented sectoral bottom-up models of the project partners (Austrian Energy Agency, Vienna University of Technology, Graz University of Technology, Federal Environmental Agency) with the top-down model WIFO.DYNK (dynamic New Keynesian model). The WEM scenario results in a slight absolute decoupling of economic output and energy consumption at average annual real GDP growth of 1.5 percent. Ambitious climate protection in the WAM-plus scenario yields an average annual GDP growth of 1.7 percent (at constant prices) with a significant decline in energy demand in the most important sectors.