Energy Scenarios 2030-2050. Energy-economic Impacts from Reaping Energy Efficiency Potentials in Industry and Households

This study converts two energy efficiency scenarios into the model language of the WIFO.DYNK model and analyses the medium and long-term effects (2030-2050) of altered energy use patterns, price developments, and technological efficiency potentials as well as structural and behavioural changes on economic performance, final energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Austria. Two scenarios are modelled: an efficiency scenario for the manufacturing sector and an efficiency scenario for the household sector comprising individual motorised transport. A baseline scenario, which represents already adopted measures for renewable energy and e-mobility deployment until 2050, serves as a counterfactual. The scenario analyses show that in a global decarbonisation environment following the 450 ppm-scenario of the International Energy Agency, a realisation of the estimated efficiency potentials could yield a CO2 emissions reduction of up to 5 million t CO2 in 2030 and 8 million t CO2 in 2050 (compared to baseline), and, moreover, slightly increases the economic output. For the remaining emissions budget to be avoided, diesel-based freight transport in particular represents a central starting point for mitigation measures in order to achieve Paris-compliant emissions development.