Substudy 1: Determinants of Economic Growth in the OECD Countries

The substudy investigates the determinants of economic growth (in terms of per-capita GDP growth of the working age population aged 15 to 64 at constant purchasing power parities) in the OECD countries between 1970 and 2004. It found that the investment rate, human resources, corporate R&D rate, the share of high-tech exports and the net output share of the high-tech sectors all have a significant positive impact on the per-capita GDP of the working age population. Increasing the research rate or shifting research expenditures towards the high-tech sector would directly boost growth. Since the 1990s, investments have been to a large extent losing their relevance for economic growth while the impact of R&D has grown since the 1980s. Similarly, technology specialisation in the high-tech sector has markedly increased its importance for growth. Increasing the number of university graduates to OECD level would, in the long term, considerably increase per-capita GDP growth of the working age population. An economic policy that promotes growth and employment should chiefly provide incentives for more investment into R&D, especially in the high-tech field. In order to integrate and diffuse new knowledge it is furthermore necessary to raise the number of graduates from technical and scientific university courses and the quality of universities in general.