The Outlook for 1993 and 1994: Upturn Remains an Uncertain Perspective

The sharp downturn of exports and industrial output came to a halt early this year and gave way to stagnation at a level markedly lower than a year ago. Leading indicators suggest some further weakening of foreign demand before a turning point may be reached. Domestic private consumption is holding up well but a continued decline in employment may weaken confidence later this year. On annual average, real GDP is projected to fall by ¾ percent. In 1994, Austria may expect moderate growth of real GDP of about 1½ percent – broadly in line with OECD-Europe but notably higher than in Western Germany. It will be supported mainly by domestic demand. Exports, while reversing the present downward trend, will be held back by stagnation in the German market and the repercussions of exchange rate changes in Europe.