Development of Public Expenditure on Care Services. Projections for the Länder

The projection of public net expenditure on care services in the Länder (federal states) that are (partially) financed by the social welfare system and the needs-based guaranteed minimum social benefit system takes into account the demographic development, the better health status of elderly people, a decline in informal care as well as increases of costs, but ignores future policy changes. Calculations show an increase of public expenditure between 2012 and 2030 that ranges from 112 percent (Burgenland) to 159 percent (Vorarlberg). The cost increases for mobile care are slightly lower than those for care in retirement homes. A "policy scenario" takes a gradual reduction of care in retirement homes into account, showing that a more accurate allocation of places in retirement homes would reduce costs.