Long-term Energy Use in Austria. The Impacts of Carbon and Energy Prices up to 2030

The European 20-20-20 targets represent an integrated European approach to a climate and energy policy that aims to combat climate change, increase the EU's energy security and strengthen its competitiveness. Its corresponding national targets for Austria are a reduction of its greenhouse gases emissions by 16 percent regarding the sectors covered by the Effort-Sharing Decision (not covered by the Emission Trading System, ETS), an increase in the share of renewable energy sources in gross final energy consumption to 34 percent, as well as a stabilisation of final energy demand to its 2005 level. To meet these goals, different energy use scenarios for the Austrian economy up to 2020 and further to 2030 were developed serving as tool of information to the impacts of different climate and energy policy measures. Scenario projections are based on the dynamic (macro) econometric Input-Output (DEIO) model. DEIO is interlinked with bottom-up models which estimate energy efficiency improvements of the capital stock. It incorporates price and trend-depending inter-fuel substitution functions as well as physical energy demands of industries and households. The framework allows simulating the effects of price changes (CO2-certificate prices, mineral oil tax) and energy efficiency developments on the Austrian final energy demand. We find that existing measures do not lead to a stabilisation of the final energy demand.