Strong Increase of the Global Economy. Mid-range Forecast until 2015

The forecast of global economic development up to 2015 was made using an econometric world model (Oxford Model). It is assumed that uncertainties as to how the interest and debt crises will be handled in the various euro countries will continue for quite some time. Accordingly, the euro-dollar exchange rate is expected to weaken slightly (to $ 1.20) until 2012 before it goes up again to $ 1.35. Once the euro crisis is overcome, the forces that depress the dollar exchange rate, especially the high US foreign debt and that country's currency conflict with China, should once again gain ground. The crude oil price is set to continue its excessive upward movement, with the Brent price going up from $ 78 per barrel in 2010 to $ 105 in 2015. The savings rate of US households should increase by about 2 percentage points by 2015, due to the devaluation of their financial and real estate assets and high unemployment.