Curves Mapping the Above-average Probability of Flood Events in Austria

Curves mapping the above-average probability of flood events are a tool to illustrate and use the findings of a disaster model. They describe the annual probability by which a given portfolio of assets potentially exceeds a given scale of losses. The paper is the first to calculate these curves for flood events in Austria, showing that buildings used by private households in Austria will suffer total losses in excess of € 100 million once in every 1,000 cases (0.1 percent); in other words, the total loss suffered by private residential buildings stays below € 100 million in 999 out of 1,000 cases (99.9 percent). The curves also allow calculating limits for a safety level of 1 in every 10,000 cases (0.01 percent). In this case, a total loss of € 400 million for private residential buildings would be exceeded once in every 10,000 cases. Higher losses certainly can occur, but the probability of their occurrence is very low. Calculating such probability curves for public buildings, buildings operated by the services sector, industry and commerce, and other buildings makes it possible to furnish an in-depth estimate of the flood risk based on the 2005 stock.