Central and East European Economies: Moderate Slow-down After the Boom in 2000

In 2000, for the first time since the beginning of transformation the economy grew in all CEECs. All countries managed to accommodate the shock of high oil prices – no currency, current account, or banking crisis occurred. Croatia, the Czech Republic, Romania and Ukraine pulled themselves out of recession, and so did the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, under very special conditions. The CEECs gained from the business climate in the European Union and in the USA, but this positive influence will lose strength in 2001. The picture in this year will be mixed. Some countries will continue to recover further from recession or near-stagnation, others, such as Poland and Russia, both important due their size, are likely to achieve less growth than last year. Poland is plagued by a high current account deficit and a stagnating domestic demand, Russia is confronted with less favourable world market prices for oil and a gradual real appreciation of the currency. Over the whole region, growth will continue in 2002, but disturbances are always possible, as the countries are vulnerable to external influences, and some of them are still struggling with irregularities in their financial system.