Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy 2022 to 2026. Pessimistic Scenario from August 2022 – Russian Natural Gas Delivery Stop

In addition to the regular quarterly WIFO economic forecast and the semi-annual medium-term forecast, in this project a pessimistic scenario for the years 2022 to 2026 was prepared in August 2022, assuming a permanent cut-off of gas supplies from Russia to Europe from autumn 2022 and a sustained disruption of crude oil supplies from Kazakhstan by Russia. The international scenario was based on the IMF World Economic Outlook and the OEF Global Forecast. Furthermore, model simulations using the WIFO multi-sector input-output model provided a sectoral perspective on the transmission of these negative energy shocks to the Austrian economy.