Information on the publication of the WWWI: The WWWI estimates are (currently) updated monthly and published on WIFO's website.
WWWI for GDP and its subcomponents
The inflation-adjusted volume of non-cash transactions, as an indicator of household consumption, shows a year-on-year decline in demand for goods (retail sales) and services in October and early November. Private consumption is estimated to have fallen by ¼ percent and ½ percent compared to the previous year in October and the first half of November (September –3½ percent, revised)1.
The development of gross fixed capital formation is determined by economic output (industrial production) and sentiment in the manufacturing sector (according to the WIFO-Konjunkturtest, business cycle survey). In October and the first half of November, the decline is estimated at 4½ percent and 4 percent respectively compared to the previous year (September –6¾ percent).
The number of trucks on Austria's motorways and the volume of rail freight transport fell again in October and early November compared to the same period last year. By contrast, the number of passenger flights handled at Vienna Airport continued to rise. While exports are likely to have fallen further, mainly due to a decline in exports of services, total imports stagnated. The estimated growth contribution of net exports in the broad sense to GDP was therefore negative in October, at –¼ percentage point.
The weakness of freight transport is also reflected in the value added of the transport sector (NACE H). At –5 percent in October and –4¼ percent in the first half of November, it remained below the level of a year ago (September –5¼ percent).
Although the number of unemployed persons in the producing sector remained at a low level in October by long-term standards, it has been rising increasingly year-on-year since April. The WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey) continues to show a predominantly pessimistic sentiment among manufacturing firms, both in their assessment of the current situation and in their expectations for the coming months. Compared to the previous year, WIFO expects the value added in the goods-producing sector (NACE A to E) to have been 3¼ percent and 2½ percent lower in October and early November, respectively (September –6½ percent).
According to the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey), sentiment among construction companies has not deteriorated further. The number of people registered as unemployed has risen for three quarters, and in October the number of persons employed was lower than a year earlier for the third time in a row. Value added in the construction sector (NACE F) is expected to have fallen by 2¼ percent and 2 percent year-on-year in October and the first half of November respectively (September –4 percent).
Based on cashless transactions in hotels and restaurants, sentiment indicators from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey) and online searches by foreign guests, value added in tourism (accommodation and food services, NACE I) is estimated to have decreased by ¼ percent in October and by ¼ percent in the first half of November compared to the previous year (September –3½ percent). In trade (NACE G), value added was 2½ percent lower year-on-year in October and 2¼ percent lower in the first half of November (September –6¼ percent).
The momentum in other market services (NACE J to N) remains subdued: compared with a year earlier, value added rose by ¾ percent in October and by 1 percent in the first half of November (September 0 percent), based on the indicators for the current situation and expectations from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey), the current employment situation and developments in manufacturing. In other personal services (NACE R to T), value added is estimated to have increased by 3 percent year-on-year in October and by 4¼ percent in the first half of November (September +3½ percent).
1 The inclusion of newly published monthly data, which have to be met when estimating the WWWI, led to a revision of the WWWI (September 2023 –1½ percentage points). On the production side, the largest downward revisions in August occurred in the goods producing sector (NACE A to E), trade (NACE G), construction (NACE F), and transport (NACE H), while an upward revision was seen for the remaining market services (NACE J to N).