Economic Expectations Point to Stabilisation

The increase is primarily due to improved economic expectations, while situation assessments remained stable compared to the previous month. The sceptical economic picture continues to be determined by the very weak economic situation in manufacturing and construction, while the mood among service providers has improved.

The index of current situation assessments for the total economy fell by 0.2 points in March and was in negative territory at –6.9 points. In manufacturing, which is particularly important for the economy, the situation index lost 1.6 points and, at –23.1 points, remained well below the zero line that separates positive from negative situation assessments. In the construction industry, the situation index deteriorated (–7.4 points) and, at –10.0 points, was lower in negative territory than in the previous month. In the services sector, however, the situation index rose slightly (+0.7 points) and remained in positive territory with a value of 1.7 points. In the retail trade, the situation index improved noticeably (+6.4 points) and was back above the zero line at 2.7 points.

The index of business expectations for the total economy gained 5.4 points in March, but at –7.5 points remained below the zero line that separates negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail trade, the expectations index gained 3.2 points compared to the previous month, but remained in the sceptical economic expectations range at –15.1 points. In the services sector, the expectations index rose significantly (+8.2 points) and was cautiously positive again at 1.0 points. Expectations in the construction industry fell (–2.6 points). At –3.7 points, the index was below the zero line. In the manufacturing sector, the expectations index showed an improvement in March (+4.0 points). However, at –20.2 points, the index remained in the range of pessimistic economic expectations.