How "Bio" is the Bio-Based Economy? Evidence from an integrated modelling exercise

To mitigate our economies' reliance on fossil fuels, bio-based alternatives to common materials are increasingly proposed. Though usually looking (much) more environmentally friendly, the up-stream consequences of such alternatives are often not well analysed; specifically, the (net) reduction in oil consumption, e.g., is often much less than expected (as, for example, in the rather ill-fated experiment with bio-fuels for transport). This paper takes as its starting point the potential replacement of crude oil by bio-based feedstock in the production of polymers ("plastics"). Employing a cascade of specialised models, from the production technology of the chemical industry, via a global agricultural model, to a global Input-Output model, we simulate the "technological rebound" as significant, but not dramatic.