High Frequency Business Cycle Analysis of August 2020

The weekly WIFO Economic Index (WWWI), which is compiled using high-frequency data, shows that the continuous recovery process in Austria's economic development since the lows in spring continued in August 2020 (calendar week 35 –3.5 percent), but that the momentum of the recovery lost some of its strength. Based on the WWWI, the estimate for GDP growth for the year as a whole is around –7 percent. This is confirmed by the results of a cluster of dynamic factor models (CDFM), which is presented here for the production-side aggregates of National Accounts. Furthermore, we present the results of a correlation analysis, which was also used for the selection of indicators for the CDFM. The situation on the labour market eased further in August; the increase in the number of unemployed was noticeably smaller than in the previous month, and the rate of job losses was reduced again.