Photovoltaik Systems in the Energy Transition

A rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is required to achieve the climate targets. Austria is aiming to increase electricity generation from renewable energy sources by 27 TWh in the next decade, striving to meet 100 percent of its electricity consumption through renewables by 2030. Beyond 2030, further electrification in all sectors will require a continuous expansion of renewable electricity.

The contribution of private households as prosumers will be of crucial importance in the energy transition and constitutes a long-term remedy against electricity price increases. Nevertheless, not all private households can equally benefit from this technology. For a socially inclusive energy transition, it must be ensured that all households have the opportunity and incentive to participate in prosumer activities.

FutuRes-PV aims at deriving policy recommendations on how to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of photovoltaic (PV) support in Austria, allowing for a socially inclusive uptake of PV systems at the household level. It investigates the impact of increasing household PV electricity generation in Austria until 2040, analysing different policy scenarios regarding their impact on the development of prosumer activities related to PV systems ("prosumer scenarios"'). For this purpose, the household module of the macro-economic model DYNK will be adapted and linked to the results of a newly developed technology diffusion model that simulates the adoption of PV systems by different household groups. The technology diffusion model will draw from insights from a choice experiment on PV investment by Austrian private households, informing about the most relevant factors for the households' (non-)investment in PV systems. The model simulations will deliver insights into the effects of different policy approaches on different household groups concerning the investment in PV systems (with and without batteries) as well as in terms of their income and consumption possibilities, and inform on macroeconomic effects and the impact on CO₂ emissions.

The project is funded by the Climate and Energy Fund (Klima- und Energiefonds) and carried out within the Austrian Climate Research Programme (ACRP). More information on the project is available at https://futures-pv.wifo.ac.at/.