High Uncertainty Dampens Economy

Despite declines, the situation indicators continue to show a favourable economic environment. However, business uncertainty has risen to new peaks as a result of the almost complete cut-off of Russian gas supplies and the development of energy prices. As a result, economic expectations have deteriorated further and now signal a mostly sceptical economic outlook.

The current situation index lost 3.6 points in September but remained positive at 9.6 points. In the manufacturing sector, which is particularly sensitive to economic developments, the situation index lost 1.5 points compared to the previous month but remained positive at 10.0 points. In the construction industry the situation index lost 0.5 points, but also remained above average at 22.7 points. In the service sectors, the index lost 6.1 points compared to the previous month but remained above the zero line with a value of 10.5 points. In the retail sector, the situation index declined by a further 0.7 points and stood at –10.6 points, in the range of very sceptical economic assessments.
The business expectations index also lost momentum in September (–3.2 points). At 0.7 points, it was only just above the zero line that separates negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail sector, the expectations index lost 4.1 points and was clearly in negative territory at –24.2 points. In the service sectors the expectations index also fell (–3.5 points) and at 1.7 points was only just above the zero line. In the construction industry the expectations index also declined (–1.1 points), but at 33.2 points it remains in the optimistic range, which is due to the high price expectations. In contrast, the business situation expectations in the construction industry have been in negative territory since May. In the manufacturing sector, which was particularly affected by the rise in energy prices, the expectations index declined (–3.0 points). At –3.4 points, it was below the zero line and thus in the pessimistic range.