29.10.2020

Despite Improvement in the Manufacturing Sector, Economic Momentum is Flattening Out

WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of October 2020
In October, the majority of Austrian companies' economic outlook remained sceptical. The WIFO economic climate index (+0.1 points) stayed in negative territory at –9.4 points. The assessments of the current situation and the dynamics of corporate expectations remained subdued. While the economic assessments were improving in the manufacturing sector, the service and construction sectors were losing economic momentum again.

The index of current assessments of the overall economic situation rises by 0.1 points to –9.1 points in October (excluding seasonal fluctuations). However, there are significant differences across the sectors. In the service sectors, the index fell by 2.2 points to –12.2 points and is still in negative territory. In the construction industry, the situation index decreased by 6.6 points. However, at 9.7 points, the index remains in positive territory. In the manufacturing sector, the situation index gained 7.5 points, but despite the increase it remains in the skeptical range at –10.2 points.

On balance, the expectations of Austrian companies across all sectors are unchanged from the previous month. The index of corporate expectations remained in the sceptical range in October at –9.6 points. In the construction sector alone, the expectations index is above the zero line separating negative from positive expectations: after a further gain of 0.8 points compared to the previous month, the index now stands at 7.0 points. In the service sectors, on the other hand, the expectations index has lost 2.0 points and now stands at –12.0 points in below-average area. In the manufacturing sector, the expectations index is gaining some momentum (+2.8 points) but is still negative at –12.1 points. The majority of companies expects the economic development to be dampened by the COVID-19 crisis in the coming months.

Details on all sectors in the current economic survey can be found here.

WIFO-Konjunkturtest
29.10.2020
Finalization: October 2020
Project partner Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Economic and Social Science Computing Center
Contractor project: European Commission
Specialist publication: WIFO-Konjunkturtest
Dr. Werner Hölzl
Industrial, Innovation and International Economics