Forecasts of Overnight Stays as well as Revenue and Real Gross Value Added of the Accommodation and Food Service Sector by Federal Provinces

Demand for Austrian tourism services has so far defied the economic downturn and high inflation in many countries. In the 2023 summer season, a record number of overnight stays was achieved in Austria, and the outlook for the winter is consistently positive. According to the WIFO forecast, the number of overnight stays by tourists in Austria will increase by a total of 9.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the previous year. This means that demand for overnight stays in the fourth quarter of 2023 will also exceed the pre-pandemic level of the same period in 2019 by 1.3 percent. The continued high level of inflation will also have an impact on nominal revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023, meaning that a 11.0 percent increase in the nominal volume of advance VAT declarations (UVA) from accommodation and food service establishments is forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023. Price-adjusted gross value added in the accommodation and food service sector is expected to increase by 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. In the first quarter of 2024, year-on-year growth in overnight stays is estimated at 7.5 percent and nominal advance sales tax registrations should rise by 11.6 percent. With inflation falling and production costs easing, price-adjusted gross value added is also expected to increase in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same quarter of the previous year (+7.4 percent).