The Economic Outlook for 1992 and 1993: Further Weakening of Activity Unlikely

Real GDP is now expected to grow by 2.2 percent in 1992, up a little from earlier forecasts. The risk that the recessionary forces from abroad would kick the Austrian economy off the growth track has virtually disappeared in recent months. A general and self-sustained upswing in Western Europe will not set in before 1992. Austria should be able to fully participate via a rebound in exports and attain a GDP growth rate of 3 percent. Despite Austria maintaining its growth advantage vis-à-vis OECD Europe the current account will stay in equilibrum. Consumer price inflation will average 4 percent in 1992, up from 3¼ percent last year. The labour market has so far proved very resistent to the cyclical weakness. The jobless rate is likely to remain just below 6 percent of the dependent labour force.