Cyclical Boom without Negative Side Effects

  • Georg M. Busch

In the first half of 1990 the economy was marked by healthy growth under sustainable conditions. Demand and output showed renewed strength, while inflation remained stable and the current account equilibrium was maintained. Industrial output has been progressing steeply since last autumn, giving stimulus also to other sectors of the economy. Exports are rising unabated at double-digit annual rates despite an upward tendency in the effective Schilling exchange rate. Demand has shifted towards Austria's traditional markets in Western Europe, particularly Germany, while deliveries to the East are lagging behind. Beneficial effects from the liberalisation process will materialize only gradually. Private consumption rebounded strongly in early 1990, with demand concentrating on durables. Raw material prices have eased thereby offsetting the stronger upward drift in wage costs. The annual rise in the consumer price index has been unchanged at 3.1 percent for the last three months.