The World Economy is Recovering, but Cyclical Risks Persist

After the deepest decline in decades world trade has recovered since the early summer of 2009. However, most recently its volume has still been about one eighth below the peak of April 2008. The strong impulses for the world economy initially originate from the emerging economies in Asia. China is implementing an extensive stimulus programme to boost investment into infrastructure and private consumption demand. Its effects, which are supported by improved capital market conditions, can be felt in the whole area. The Latin American emerging economies and the oil exporting countries benefit from a rebound of commodity prices.