Financial Crisis Causes Prolonged Global Economic Downturn. Medium-term Forecast of the World Economy until 2013

The forecast is based on the following assumptions about the evolution of important variables until 2013: As a consequence of the depreciation of their financial wealth and real property the savings ratio of the US households will increase from 2 percent in 2008 to 6 percent in 2013. The key interest rates of the euro and the US dollar will be roughly 1 percent and will thus be kept at an extremely low level. The exchange rate of the euro will decline to 1.18 $ by 2013. The oil price will recover and rise to 73 $ per barrel by 2013. The decline of share and house prices will come to a halt in the course of 2009.