European Transition Economies: World-wide Slowdown of Growth of Limited Impact

In all European transition economies discussed in this article the GDP grew in both 2000 and 2001. The only exception was Macedonia in 2001, due to a serious political crisis. In those countries that in the past decade experienced an extremely severe economic setback – Bulgaria, Romania, Russia, Ukraine and Yugoslavia – the growth rate jumped to between 5 and 10 percent at least in one of these two years. In 2002, almost all countries will be unable to achieve a growth rate similar to that reported in 2000-01. The world-wide slow-down of economic growth, and especially the growth deceleration in Germany and other EU countries, has shown a direct impact on the export performance of transition countries: exports grew only insignificantly in the last months of 2001, and the same was true for industrial output. GDP growth will be low in the first quarter of 2002, however is likely to intensify in the course of the year as well as in 2003. The inflation rate has become one-digit in most of the countries; a trend towards nominal appreciation emerged in some of the leading countries. A more rapid introduction of the Euro is likely to become a hot topic in the course of EU accession. Austria is making a comfortable surplus in its trade with the Central European transition countries, and especially with Hungary, Croatia and Slovenia. Hungary is also Austria's major business partner in the region.