Energy Scenarios up to 2020

On the basis of its model of energy demand and conversion in Austria (DAEDALUS III), WIFO simulated three scenarios to establish a long-term forecast of the development of energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The baseline scenario assumes a continuation of current developments, while the Kyoto scenario reflects the effects of the Austrian strategy to counteract climate change. The sustainability scenario is based on the adoption of international approaches to implement socially compatible measures aimed at minimising energy consumption and accelerating technological progress. Under the "baseline scenario", the consumption of fuels, electricity and gas continues to increase. This development, combined with a rising volume of electricity generation by thermal power plants, results in an increase of CO2 emissions by about 3.2 million tons per year until 2010. The "Kyoto scenario" reflects the Austrian strategy of preventing climate change, which provides for an increase in energy efficiency and greater reliance on renewable sources of energy, the goal being to diminish the level of CO2 emissions by about 13 million tons against baseline by 2010. The "sustainability scenario" simulates the effects of a socially compatible reduction of energy services and an accelerated pace of innovation and technology diffusion. Until 2010, energy consumption and CO2 emissions decrease by more or less the same amounts as under the Kyoto scenario, but by 2020 CO2 emissions drop to 63 percent of the year-2000 level. Both the Kyoto scenario and the sustainability scenario are associated with substantial costs, as they require a diversion of resources, but GDP and employment are higher than in the baseline scenario.