Higher Oil Prices and Budgetary Consolidation Dampen Economic Growth. Economic Outlook for 2000 and 2001

The massive rise in oil prices and more determined policy efforts to consolidate public finances will make for a slowdown in economic growth next year. Following a strong cyclical upswing in 2000 (+3.5 percent), activity is set to expand by a more moderate 2.8 percent in 2001. Inflation is expected to abate once oil prices start falling from their current peak, and the rate of unemployment should remain on a clear downward trend. The general government deficit target of ¾ percent of GDP can be met on the basis of the tighter fiscal stance, while the public revenue/GDP ratio will rise significantly.